By Azaera Amza
Scientists predict the probability of quakes by looking at when they last occurred in the past 200 years, and so assign a 50% possibility to an earthquake measuring at least 7.0 on the Richter scale occurring again in the next 50 years. However, having a vague idea of when the next earthquake is going to take place does not effectively help in saving lives as the location and specific timing of when it will happen is instrumental in implementing evacuation strategies.
There are attempts to update and improve the current method of predicting earthquakes, so as to provide a more accurate idea of when they are due to happen. The most obvious issue with predicting earthquakes is that it is a complex task. There are many variables that factor into how they occur, such as minerals, pressure and temperature.
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Although there is a dire need for accurate methods of predicting when the next quake will hit, no existing mechanism is 100% reliable.