Impact of global warming on food security in vulnerable areas in Africa

By Sandro Calmanti, ENEA

Global warming may imply large fluctuations of the impact of droughts in rural areas. Adaptation strategies will likely have to cope with such variable conditions rather than with constant trends.

The 4-year research project called IMPACT2C is working on the analysis of the impact of +2°C global warming on droughts and how they may affect food security in the Nile and the Niger basins. The article presents the preliminary results of this research for both regions.

Africa Risk View

Ensuring the access to sufficient food that meets the needs for an active and healthy life is an issue in many rural areas where rain-fed agriculture is the major economic resource. In light of climate variability and change, the development of adaptation plans that prevent the impact of adverse environmental conditions remains a priority.

The 4-year research project called IMPACT2C is working on the analysis of the impact of +2°C global warming on droughts and how they may affect food security in the Nile and the Niger basins. Impact2C works in collaboration with the African Risk Capacity (ARC) Project initiated by the African Union with technical assistance from the UN World Food Programme.

The ARC project licensed IMPACT2C for using Africa RiskView (ARV), a software platform that was developed as a tool to translate satellite-based rainfall information into near real-time estimates of drought response costs, by combining models on agricultural drought with data on vulnerable populations. ARV has been combined with the output of regional climate models (RCMs) contributing to the Africa-CORDEX initiative. Besides real-time and retrospective analysis ARV is now able to produce forecasts and scenarios of food security.