Determinants of the lethality of climate-related disasters in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM): a cross-country analysis

Scientific Reports 5, Article no.: 11972, doi:10.1038/srep11972:

This paper aims to elucidate risk factors for mortality due to storms and floods i.e the lethality of these events in CARICOM countries. The authors conducted an ecological study investigating risk factors for flood and storm lethality in CARICOM nations for the period 1980–2012. They examined biophysical and social vulnerability proxies and a decadal effect as predictors, and developed a regression model via multivariate analysis using a generalized logistic regression model with quasi-binomial distribution; removal of multi-collinear variables and backward elimination. Robustness was checked through subset analysis.

The authors found significant positive associations between lethality, percentage of total land dedicated to agriculture (odds ratio [OR] 1.032; 95% CI: 1.013–1.053) and percentage urban population (OR 1.029, 95% CI 1.003–1.057). Deaths were more likely in the 2000–2012 period versus 1980–1989 (OR 3.708, 95% CI 1.615–8.737).

Robustness checks revealed similar coefficients and directions of association. Population health in CARICOM nations is being increasingly impacted by climate-related disasters connected to increasing urbanization and land use patterns. Our findings support the evidence base for setting sustainable development goals (SDG).