The making of a riskier future: How our decisions are shaping future disaster risk
The report calls for a radical new approach to assessing risk, which takes into account extremely rapid changes in global disaster risk. Most disaster risk assessment today is static, focusing only on understanding current risks. A paradigm shift is needed toward dynamic risk assessments, which reveal the drivers of risk and the effectiveness of policies focused on reducing risk.
The report examines literature and case studies from around the world, noting that global disaster risk is changing extremely fast, due to combined dynamics of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. But most risk assessments do not account for these changes, so they provide a static view of risk. As a result, risk management policy decisions based on such assessments do not take into account the continuous and sometimes rapid changes in the drivers of risk and so may underestimate risk.
Decisions being taken today are influencing future disaster risk—either reducing risk or increasing it. By promoting policies that reduce risk and avoiding maladaptive actions that increase risk, we can positively influence the risk environment of the future. The drivers of future risk are within the control of decision makers today: there is a huge opportunity today to manage the risks of tomorrow. But accurate assessment and continuous reevaluation of risk are required to enable effective risk reduction and prevent drastic increases in future losses.
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