Evaluation of flood forecasting predictability: technical report

This report covers the development of a flood forecasting system for the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers, along with an evaluation of the sources of forecasting predictability. Many of the findings also have implictions for the surrounding South Asia region. The aspects covered include issues related to input data availability, quality, and utility; issues related to the engineering and technical feasibility of the development of forecasting systems for the region; and general issues related to the planning and optimal resource allocation for the implemention of such systems, and planning for future technical developments

Four objectives are being covered in this report:

Objective 1

Assess the skill and estimate the errors in some of the foundational data sets available for use in flood forecasting for India, focusing on remotely-sensed products useful for catchments with limited on-the-ground monitoring

Objective 2

Integrating these data sets into a common hydrologic forecasting framework, showing how this can be achieved from an “engineering perspective”, but also provide operational forecasts with potential for societal benefit

Objective 3

Provide effective displays for these products, including maps of areas of inundation corresponding to forecasted discharge that have potential benefits for “on the ground” operations and decision-making

Objective 4

Utilizing estimates of the errors in the hydrologic forecasting framework and input data sets, determine the overall predictability of the system to forecast flooding events of differing levels of severity in the Ganges and Brahmaputra watersheds at different locations and forecast lead-times; from this assessment, recommendations can be made on where investments should be focused to increase flood forecasting capacity throughout the basins to meet World Bank development goals