Climate risk country profile: Ethiopia

Ethiopia is exposed to numerous hazards including droughts, floods, volcanoes, and earthquakes. Recurring droughts and floods have the most severe impact on Ethiopia’s population and the country has a long history of recurring droughts, which have increased in magnitude, frequency, and impact since the 1970s. The 2011 Horn of Africa drought left more than 4.5 million people in need of food assistance. These food shortages were caused in part by the widespread death of livestock in the south and south-eastern parts of the country following pasture failures and water shortages. It is anticipated that due to climate change and additional human-induced factors, areas affected by drought and desertification are expanding. Flash floods and seasonal river floods are also becoming more frequent and widespread. Projected trends indicate that through the end of the century there is a likely 20% increase in extreme high rainfall events.

Vulnerability is further exacerbated due to the country’s high level of poverty and its dependence on key sectors most likely effected by climate change: agriculture, water, tourism, and forestry. While the country is at high-risk to natural disasters such as flooding as well as drought, its topographic diversity and highly marginalized segments of the population, make it additionally vulnerable.

Additional, non-climate stressors such as inadequate infrastructure to handle the increasing population are also impacting the vulnerability to natural disaster sensitivity and climate change vulnerability. Climate variability is already negatively impacting livelihoods and this is expected to continue.

Drought is the single most destructive climate-related natural hazard in Ethiopia. Estimates suggest climate change may reduce Ethiopia’s GDP up to 10% by 2045, largely through drought-induced impacts on agricultural productivity. 

Economic impacts depend largely on the extent of annual weather variability and extremes, however recent major droughts have reduced the country’s GDP by 1% to 4%, and rain-induced soil erosion has been estimated to reduce GDP by approximately an additional 1%.