Anticipatory risk management: Defining windows of opportunity based on impact calendar - the Kenyan context

To contribute to the knowledge on anticipatory management for drought, this paper presents the use of drought impact calendar and existing climate and weather forecasts to define windows of opportunity for implementing drought anticipatory actions in the Kenyan context. The multi-stakeholder development of a comprehensive drought impact calendar coupled with climate forecast releases offers an opportunity to understand at what point impacts of drought are felt and also understand the existing windows of opportunity for implementing anticipatory early actions.

This paper demonstrates that the development of an impact calendar is a crucial step in the implementation of anticipatory risk management as it helps stakeholders understand the context they are operating in, identify and prioritize impacts that can be targeted with early actions and when to take the actions. Coupling an impact calendar with climate and weather forecast releases from mandated institutions guides the identification of windows of opportunity for implementing early actions. Additionally, coupling impacts and forecasts is critical in the prioritization of early actions to be implemented, at both community, county and national level. In the Kenyan context, failure of first rainy season and a prediction indicating the possibility of a second drier than usual rainy season presents a critical window of opportunity for implementing early actions.