Future of weather and climate forecasting

This White Paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting is a collective endeavour of more than 30 lead scientists and experts to analyse trends, challenges and opportunities in a very dynamic environment. The main purpose of the paper is to set directions and recommendations for scheduled progress, avoiding potential disruptions and leveraging opportunities through public-private engagement over the coming decade. This is done through a description of three overarching components of the innovation cycle: infrastructure, research and development, and operation. The paper presents the converging views of the contributors but also accounts for some variations of those views in areas where different options exist for advancing our capacity to predict weather and climate. Thus, it informs and provides for intelligent choices based on local circumstances and resources.

The advancement of our ability to predict the weather and climate has been the core aspiration of a global community of scientists and practitioners, in the almost 150 years of international cooperation in meteorology and related Earth system sciences. The demand for weather and climate forecast information in support of critical decision-making has grown rapidly during the last decade and will grow even faster in the coming years. Great advances have been made in the utilization of predictions in many areas of human activities. Nevertheless, further improvements in accuracy and precision, higher spatial and temporal resolution, and a better description of uncertainty are needed for realizing the full potential of forecasts as enablers of a new level of weather and climate-informed decision-making.