Decision support for integrated management of local-level adaptation to climate changes: the case of Serbia
This study contributes to the implementation of adaptation policies at subnational levels by development of a decision-support model for local-level management of the climate change adaptation process. The study explores the potential for synergetic application of multicriteria decision making analysis and probabilistic reasoning methods by focusing on Bayesian networks, analytical hierarchy processes, and geographic information systems for selection of priority adaptation measures. Projected climate changes will additionally increase the already significant risk of natural hazard-related disasters in Serbia and the west Balkan region as a whole. Serbia is about to introduce the strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, a national decision-support system for implementation of the climate change law and strategy is yet to be developed.
This model as developed provides an integrated methodological framework that can be applied at different spatial levels and for different sectors. It also allows integration of multiple risks, and enables data aggregation for their comprehensive analysis at different spatial levels. The present research was focused on Serbia as a context for a climate change adaptation prioritization exercise. However, the developed model allows for further extension to meet specific local demands in selecting adequate adaptation options, and thus can be used, or further developed, by researchers and policymakers in different contexts.