Climate change risk analysis of Argentina’s land transport network

This study aims to quantify the impact of climate change induced flood risk on the transport network in Argentina. The country's vast networks of national, provincial, and rural roads, spanning more than 240,000 kilometers, are critical for the country’s growth and development. However, climate change–induced hydrological extremes often disrupt road travel and raise logistics costs. The study analyzes both current and future flooding scenarios, examines the resulting disruptions in the transport network, and estimates the direct and indirect macroeconomic losses. The study uses a system-of-systems approach, where network models are developed to suitably represent the transport system as nodes and links. For each node and link, the study analyzes criticality, vulnerability, and risk, and provides adaptation strategies.

This study finds that: (i) major freight transport routes on Argentina’s roads, national road bridges, and railway networks face disruptions due to extreme flooding and climate change; and (ii) economic impacts of disruptions can become quite significant, depending upon the network rerouting capabilities and the duration of disruption. To address these risks, the National Roads Directorate or the Dirección Nacional de Vialidad (DNV) and the Ministry of Transport (MoT) need to be increasingly prepared for extreme flooding events, which will become more severe due to climate change. By incorporating climate change risks into all long-term planning processes at a national scale, DNV and MoT can gain a better understanding of the impact. The next crucial step is to go beyond quantifying direct damage and begin to account for macroeconomic losses from climate-related disruptions. Finally, DNV and MoT must develop their internal capacity to undertake transport risk assessment to inform designs, construction, and maintenance approaches.