Climate risk country profile: Samoa

This document aims to succinctly summarize the climate risks faced by Samoa. This includes rapid onset and long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities, livelihoods and economies, many of which are already underway. This is a high-level synthesis of existing research and analyses, focusing on the geographic domain of Samoa, therefore potentially excluding some international influences and localized impacts. The document also aims to direct the reader to many useful sources of secondary data and research.

Some of the key messages of this paper include:

• Samoa has experienced warming trends of approximately 0.6°C between 1980 and 2018.
• Future trends in warming are obscured by the inability of climate models to accurately simulate trends at sufficiently small spatial scales. Warming is likely to take place at a rate slightly lower than the global average. On the highest emissions pathway, RCP8.5, warming in Samoa is projected to reach 2.7°C by the end of the century.
• Samoa faces a diverse set of risks from climate change, but data and reliable model projections are lacking, presenting challenges for decision makers.
• Potential threats to human well-being and natural ecosystems include increased prevalence of natural hazards
• such as extreme heat, intensified cyclones and extreme rainfall.