Crisis Protection Gap – Top Down Costing Analysis

Objective of this work

What crises could emerge over the coming years? How will they impact on the lives of poor and vulnerable people? And how should funds be pre-positioned to mitigate and manage the impacts of these shocks?

These are the questions that country governments, the international system, and donors will need to ask if pre-arranged financing is to become the default way to pay for managing the costs of disasters.

It is increasingly possible to estimate crisis related costs ahead of time. Combining information about crises-related expenditures with risk modelling approaches can provide realistic estimates of the likelihood and magnitude of crisis costs over the coming years. This type of probabilistic crisis risk information1is critical to inform how funds should be pre-positioned to meet the costs of tomorrow’s crises. However, while data, modelling methods, and metrics for quantifying and communicating risk do exist, as yet there is no single source of trusted and easily interpreted predictive crisis risk information that is directly relevant for longer term financial planning of governments and the international system.

This is the basis for the first of three critical, practical solutions identified by the Crisis Lookout Campaign2 as key recommendations for the G7:

“Predict crises better by creating a Crisis Lookout function to increase engagement with risk information and support the prioritisation of crises globally, regionally, and nationally.”

In consultations for the solutions paper of the Crisis Lookout, questions were raised about what an approach to measuring the crisis protection gap could look like in practice. These questions broadly related to:

1. the function of a mechanism to measure the crisis protection gap in relation to existing crisis risk information initiatives, what role it serves and for who, and

2. the technical feasibility of producing trusted and accessible multi-hazard risk assessments at a global scale, for crisis spanning climate events, conflicts, and disease outbreaks.

The Centre for Disaster Protection is commencing a research project to explore these issues in more detail. This work aims to explore questions around who the key users of the information are, what are their use cases, and questions regarding technical and practical feasibility.

The work will follow:

• a policy engagement track: to identify how a mechanism to assess the crisis protection gap best works with and within the current architecture
• a technical track: to explore the feasible technical approaches for producing this

type of multi-hazard risk information at a global scale.

Tender process and deadline

Applications are welcome from individuals or organisations for this work.

Submission mechanism and deadline

Your tender must be submitted through jobs_CDP@disasterprotection.org, with copy to Niamh_Cahill-Billings@dai.com, with the subject line: ‘CPG- Top down costing analysis_Application’.

All suppliers must mark their tenders as Commercially Confidential. DAI and CDP will treat all tender submission in confidentiality.

The tender must be received by 9am UK time, Monday 6th June 2022. Any tenders received after this date will be subject to disqualification.

We are accepting written questions until 9am Monday 30th May 2022 – responses to all questions will be collated and shared on the Centre’s website by close of play Tuesday 31st May 2022.

All communications and submissions should be in the English language.

Tender process

The tender process will be conducted in line with principles of fair treatment, transparency and with the aim of identifying the proposal that offers the best solution and value from a point of view of the purchasing authority, DAI Global UK. Selection criteria are outlined below for reference. These instructions are designed to ensure all tenders are given equal and fair consideration. It is important you provide all information requested in the submitted proposal.

Account will be taken of any factor emerging from the tender process which impacts a Tenderer’s suitability, relating to information provided by the Tenderer within the Qualification criteria, in particular any additional information which comes to light in respect of its technical and financial standing.

Information and documents to be submitted

•  CV(s) of proposed expert(s) (max. 3 pages each).
• Covering letter indicating how your experience and interest aligns with this work, and any initial observations on data and methodology questions and approaches that the supplier would foresee for the work.
• Note setting out your earliest date of availability for the assignment, and indicative workplan.
• Commercial offer including: Proposed gross daily fee rate(s) (subject to caps referenced at point 11) and proposed number of days per team member, and any proposed expenses budget.