Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River
This study investigates the future floods (in near future and far future periods) using the integrated flood analysis system (IFAS) model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The simulated stream flows from the IFAS model were calibrated and validated for 1976–1995 and 1996–2015. This study concentrated on future changes in temperature and precipitation and ultimately their influences on stream flows of the study area.
The following are some of the major findings of the study:
- Projected precipitation in the near future period (2020–2059) and far future period (2060–2099) are expected to be more than that of the baseline/historical period (1976–2015), with higher changes in the far future periods under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase in the study area with more changes in the far future period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
- The months with the highest flow in the UIRB will remain the same, that is, July–August, while it is expected to shift from May–June (Jhelum basin) and June–July (Kabul basin) to April–May in both the river basins. Overall, Jhelum basin is expected to generate less stream flows, whereas, KRB and UIRB are expected to generate more flows.
- Simulated results of ensembles of climate models showed that mostly low to medium flood events are expected in the study area, with higher numbers in the KRB and UIRB and lower numbers in the JRB. High flood events are expected in the far future period in the UIRB under RCP8.5.
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