Author(s): Mark Gollom

Turkey's earthquake is a warning for Istanbul, which would face even more deaths from a quake

Source(s): CBC/Radio-Canada
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City has 15 million people and thousands of buildings that aren't ready

The high death toll from the massive earthquake in southeastern Turkey and northern Syria is in large part a result of the poor structural integrity of thousands of buildings, experts say.

This is why Istanbul, a city of 15 million people which geologists predict will eventually get hit by a strong quake, could see tens of thousands of deaths unless action is taken on the thousands of buildings in the city that aren't earthquake proof or resistant.

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While efforts have been made to modernize building codes and protect against tremors, researchers say there is a vast challenge getting older buildings safe enough to withstand a quake.

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Turkey lies on two major fault systems, the North Anatolian Fault and East Anatolian Fault, making it the country in that area with the highest risk to be affected by a quake. Earthquake researchers predict that an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or stronger is very likely to strike Istanbul, which is close to the North Anatolian Fault, within the next 70 years.

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Estimates vary as to potential losses of life if an earthquake struck Istanbul. The municipality of Istanbul conducted its own study estimating that 14,500 people will die if a magnitude 7.5 earthquake happens at night. One study by a group of European researchers projected 30,000 to 40,000 would be killed.

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Hazards Earthquake
Country and region Syrian Arab Republic Türkiye
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