Why is it so hard to predict earthquakes?
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Surely science can figure this out?
A unique lab in upstate New York simulates earthquakes year round. The University at Buffalo New York’s Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) has two giant 7×7-metre (23×23-feet) shaking tables, each equipped to hold small buildings, pieces of bridges, or other units of infrastructure. SEESL’s Michel Bruneau said: “It is possible to build structures that can survive this,” referring to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake.
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Engineers can design failure points into the structure by moving them away from the columns that hold the building up and placing them in less critical areas. The next step, Bruneau said, is “the idea of seismic resilience” – buildings that recover. At the lab, they are developing technologies for structures with replaceable parts that concentrate the damage, break, and are then swapped out quickly, maintaining the functionality of the building or bridge.
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Modelling a fault requires as much information as possible, from as long a time period as possible. Soil matching and radiocarbon dating of the area fall within the field of paleoseismology, mapping ancient events that inform future ones. Even chemical records from coral reefs at the boundaries of plates help fill in the story.
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