Shocks and social safety net program participation in Ghana - Descriptive evidence from linking climate risk maps to programs beneficiary rolls
This study discusses the association between household exposure to negative shocks and social safety net program participation in Ghana. To examine this issue, we link data from high-resolution geospatial maps of drought and flood risks to government administrative data on safety net program beneficiaries at the district level. We find that drought risk is positively associated with household participation in selected, main public social safety net programs. The corresponding evidence for flood risk is weaker. The authors interpret the finding to be a result of pre-shock program coverage of drought-prone areas, in part achieved indirectly through the intentional targeting of poor areas by the programs.
Under current climatic conditions, information for 2020 from ThinkHazard! indicates that Ghana is rated "high" (the highest level on a four-point scale) for several climate-related shocks, including extreme heat; water scarcity; and urban, river and coastal flooding. A rating of high flooding implies an expectation of a severe flood episode every ten years, and a corresponding rating for water scarcity implies an expectation of a severe drought episode every five years. UNDRR and CIMA Research Foundation (2019) estimate that, on average, floods in Ghana adversely affect 45,000 individuals annually (about 0.16 percent of the country's population) and reduce annual national gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.23 percent. The study also estimates that, on average, drought in the country adversely affects 3.5 million individuals annually (about 13 percent of the population) and reduces annual national GDP by 15 percent.