Risk assessment of debris flows along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar-Khunjerab Section) in the context of climate change
In this study, the debris flow gullies along the KKH were analyzed through field survey and remote sensing interpretation to assess the debris flow risk in a warming climate and to propose strategies to deal with debris flow disasters under different warming scenarios. Historical meteorological data and future climate model data were used to analyze the future climate change of the study area and its impact on debris flow activities for the baseline time period (2009–2018) and three future time periods (2025s, 2035s and 2045s) under the RCP8.5 scenario.
The results show that the risk of debris flows increases with climate change, with the highest risk level in the 2025s. Among different parts of this highway, the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest risk. These findings are helpful for debris flow prevention and can offer coping strategies for the existing line of the KKH.