Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole

In this publication researchers conduct an appraisal of the Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOFs) risks by combining high-resolution satellite images, case-by-case high-precision GLOF modeling, and detailed downstream exposure data. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most severe cryospheric hazards in the Third Pole, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Tianshan Mountains. This study directly responds to the need for local disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, highlighting the urgent requirement of reducing GLOF threats in the Third Pole and the importance of regional cooperation.

The glacial lake changes from 2018 to 2022 in the region were primarily driven by the accelerated expansion of proglacial lakes. The GLOF frequency has exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1980, with intensified activity in Southeastern Tibet and the China-Nepal border area over the past decade. Approximately 6,353 km2 of land could be at risk from potential GLOFs, posing threats to 55,808 buildings, 105 hydropower projects, 194 km2 of farmland, 5,005 km of roads, and 4,038 bridges.