Caught between extremes: Understanding human-water interactions during drought-to-flood events in the Horn of Africa
The authors developed a step-wise, bottom-up approach, in which a range of qualitative and semi-quantitative methods was used iteratively to reconstruct interactions and feedback loops between risk components and impacts of consecutive drought-to-flood events, and explore their spatiotemporal variations. Within this approach, they conceptualize disaster risk as a set of multiple (societal and physical) events interacting and evolving across space and time.
The approach was applied to the 2017–2018 humanitarian crises in Kenya and Ethiopia, where extensive flooding followed a severe drought lasting 18–24 months. The events were also accompanied by government elections, crop pest outbreaks and ethnic conflicts. Results show that (a) the highly vulnerable Kenyan and Ethiopian contexts further aggravated drought and flood impacts; (b) heavy rainfall after drought led to both an increase and decrease of the drought impacts dependent on topographic and socio-economic conditions; (c) societal response to one hazard may influence risk components of opposite hazards. A better understanding of the human-water interactions that characterize multi-risk events can support the development of effective monitoring systems and response strategies.
Explore further
![Cover](/sites/default/files/styles/por/public/2024-02/AGU_0.JPG.jpg?itok=H6mG2mCB)