High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change

This study estimates heat-related mortality at different scales, such as regional heat risk during a specific heatwave, annual and nationwide heat risk, or future heat risk under climate change scenarios. The model addressed the scope and scale mismatch between climate and mortality data. In comparison to other models, this approach allowed to account for daily weather variations at the district level and to demonstrate the spatial impact of urban heat islands.

Projections indicate that without adaptation, heat-related mortality could increase by a factor of 2.5 to 9 by 2100 due to climate change. Using this model for Germany, the authors estimate that over the past decade (2014-2023), around 48,000 deaths were heat-related, with most occurring during heatwaves.