Navigating the waves: Strengthening tsunami preparedness in a changing climate

This year’s World Tsunami Awareness Day presents a moment of reflection 20 years on from the catastrophic Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004. The tsunami resulted in 225,000 fatalities across 14 countries and emphasized the urgent need for effective tsunami preparedness, especially in the face of growing climate change challenges. Rising sea levels, increased ocean temperatures, and more frequent extreme weather events have intensified the risks faced by coastal communities in particular.

Often triggered by seismic events, submarine landslides and volcanic activity, tsunamis are a cascading hazard that can lead to further hazards such as flooding, coastal erosion, and even the spread of mosquito-borne viruses, particularly in vulnerable coastal areas. These events highlight the need for a more comprehensive and integrated approach to risk management across borders, especially in densely populated coastal areas where socio-economic vulnerabilities are already significant. Key to understanding these cascading impacts and enhancing resilience is a multi-hazard risk management approach.

The aftermath of the 2004 tsunami led to the establishment of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWMS) which provides critical tsunami warning and mitigation services to 27 Indian Ocean Basin countries. Initiatives such as the UN Secretary-General’s call for Early Warnings for All aim to make these systems inclusive and accessible to all communities, further strengthening our collective resilience. A multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) is crucial for mitigating risk from various natural hazards, including tsunamis. It provides timely alerts to protect lives and reduce economic damage from extreme geophysical and climate events, whether they occur individually, simultaneously, or sequentially.

Two decades on the ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness has proven instrumental in supporting initiatives to strengthen early warning systems and build resilience in coastal communities. The Trust Fund has served as a valuable funding mechanism to establish fit-for-purpose multi-lateral platforms for countries to access and share vital data, tools, and expertise, fostering a culture of disaster resilience through shared early warning solutions.

The Indian Ocean Capacity Assessment Task Team on Capacity Assessment of Tsunami Preparedness, consisting of experts from Member States, international organizations, and academic institutions, conducting a validation of the assessment findings with Thailand’s National Disaster Warning Centre, 4 September 2024. (Photo Credit: ESCAP Photo)

While significant progress has been made in regionally active tsunami warning and mitigation systems, ongoing efforts are essential to ensure that Asia and the Pacific remains resilient to future tsunami threats. Three such actions for acceleration are: 

Fostering regional cooperation to prepare for shared risks

Regional cooperation remains essential for effective disaster management. Collaborative efforts enable countries to share observation networks, critical data, technological resources, and best practices, leading to a collectively enhanced ability to prepare for and respond to future tsunami threats. One such example, can be observed in the North-West Indian Ocean. Recognizing a shred near-field tsunami threat in the Makran subduction zone, India, Iran, Pakistan, UAE and Oman have collectively developed a unified Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment which is now being used to provide critical information for risk-informed decision-making, such as evacuation planning and national tsunami warning chains, to be actioned within a matter of 20 minutes.

Addressing gaps in the system at all levels

From global to local, tsunami warning systems should represent a seamless value chain. The Indian and Pacific Ocean capacity assessment covers all aspects of the existing end-to-end tsunami warning and mitigation system as well as identifies targeted areas for improvement – from upstream to downstream.

By understanding both progress and gaps, countries can ensure risk-informed decision-making to implement climate actions tailored to their specific needs, while also contributing to enhanced transboundary synergies through intergovernmental and multistakeholder cooperation. The outcomes of this reassessment will serve as a key reference point for future strategies aimed at enhancing tsunami resilience across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. 

Led by UNESCO-IOC, with support from the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster, and Climate Preparedness, the Asian Development Bank, and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the assessments and companion summaries for policy and decision makers, will be published in line with the 20th commemoration of the Indian Ocean tsunami events in 2024 and the 60th anniversary of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS) in 2025.

Adequate financing for disaster preparedness

While we see that progress has been made, climate change continues to exacerbate the effects of disasters including those that are geophysical by origin. Incremental adaptation and piecemeal projectized investments will no longer suffice.

Disaster risk financing needs to be dramatically increased and financing mechanisms scaled up. It becomes all the more apparent that investments made in preparedness are far more cost-effective than spending after a disaster. The current level of adaptation finance falls short of what is needed for transformative adaptation.

While significant progress has been made in regionally active tsunami warning and mitigation systems, continued investments in the region’s unique multi-donor coordinated Trust Fund is essential to ensure that Asia and the Pacific remains resilient to future tsunami and climate related threats. Through regional cooperation that is built on community engagement and facilitated by increased investment in disaster risk reduction, a more resilient future for the next generation is within reach.