Conspiracy! Why lack of capacity will make one believe just about anything about disasters…
When disasters strike, conspiracy theories abound
The 2019 midwestern American tornadoes brought more than death, destruction, and injury. They also have inspired conspiracy theories that the tornadoes were caused by government-controlled weather manipulation.
Similar conspiracy theories spread recently alleging that a certain country had intentionally caused devastating and lethal earthquakes using modern military technology.
Were these conspiracy theories coincidences, or can they always be expected in the wake of disasters? And what can be done about them?
Conspiracy theories and natural hazards
Conspiracy theories are formed from a desire to explain the causes of significant societal and political events - by alleging secret plots by powerful actors. Conspiracy theories are widespread across many topics, including beliefs that the September 11th attacks on New York and Washington D.C. were an inside job, that the COVID-19 virus was created in a lab, or that the moon landings never actually happened.
Conspiracy theories about disasters triggered by natural hazards are a particularly curious case, however, as the actual triggering event itself - the earthquake, hurricane or flood - is usually outside of direct, immediate human control.
Yet conspiracy theorists have accused scientific programmes (e.g. the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program) of developing secret military weapons for powerful groups to use to create earthquakes, floods, hurricanes or droughts. These nefarious groups most often involve national governments but may also include cabals of business interests, secret service agencies, branches of industry, or other interest groups.
Our research suggests that conspiracy theories are prompted by two things: the natural hazard itself, and the coping capacity of governments.
Governments win support and trust if they respond well to natural hazards. For instance, Japan's comprehensive hazard education at each stage of schooling is an excellent way to empower citizens with the knowledge and skills to minimize harm caused by natural hazards.
Our evidence shows that disasters spawn conspiracy theories mostly when governments cannot cope with them.
Why does coping capacity matter?
Natural hazards can threaten societal stability and even human existence. Such existential fears make people search for meaning in these events.
Conspiracy theories can offer such meaning with relatively little effort. These theories give explanations of dangerous events through simple allegations: the destructive forces of nature were not in fact natural but caused intentionally by a group of ill-intentioned people. Conspiracy theories, therefore, help people understand the incomprehensible.
Furthermore, natural hazards often make people feel that they have lost control over their lives - and this makes conspiracy theories even more attractive. This might seem paradoxical: although powerful conspiracy theories can hardly be seen as providing control, people still cling to them when they are out of control.
However, significant differences exist between a natural hazard and an ill-intended conspiracy theory. Preparing for events as complex and powerful as many natural hazards is more complex than preparing for your enemies.
Improved coping capacity could reduce people's existential fears and increase their sense of control. For instance, providing knowledge or education about natural hazards entails understanding how they happen and offering citizens guidelines on managing risks and preparing.
Furthermore, resilient infrastructure and good governance also help them regain control after the hazards have subsided.
Our research
First, we analyzed a global dataset containing 47,816 participants from 67 countries, including participants' reported beliefs in a range of conspiracy theories. In line with our expectation, conspiracy beliefs were higher in regions of the world with more frequent natural hazard events.
In subsequent experimental studies participants imagined themselves to be citizens of societies with varying degrees of natural hazard risk, and these further supported these findings. The studies also indicated that a sense of loss of control in these life-shattering circumstances was a contributing factor to conspiracy beliefs.
Conspiracy theories add to the problems of disaster-prone communities, as they are another source of confusion and may damage the much-needed social cohesion in times of particular stress.
However, these communities do have a chance to deal with these issues. By improving their coping capacity, communities appear to mitigate this effect. A community that experiences high disaster risks but has a high capacity to cope with natural hazards, experiences similar - low - levels of conspiracy beliefs as communities with low natural hazard risk!
This result should encourage communities that are vulnerable to natural hazards to increase their coping capacity - in addition to reducing physical, psychological, and material damage, it should also diminish the power of conspiracy theories.
Reducing disaster conspiracy risk
We need to accept the fact that natural hazards exist, and we need to take action to reduce their impacts. Conspiracy theories can worsen risk by distracting people's attention from addressing the actual risk and diverting their energy towards an imagined culprit.
However, conspiracy beliefs can be minimized by improving communities' coping capacity.
This suggests that countries with high natural hazard risk do not necessarily have to expect excessive conspiracy theories among the population. Our findings indicated that fostering well-developed coping capacities could lower conspiracy belief levels to those seen in low-risk countries.
Qi Zhao is a PhD candidate at VU Amsterdam. His research interests include conspiracy theory, environmental psychology and AI-human relations. Through his work, he hopes to help combat modern society's threats.
Jan-Willem van Prooijen received his PhD from Leiden University in 2002. He is an Associate Professor of Psychology at VU Amsterdam, a Senior Researcher at the NSCR, and an Endowed Professor of Radicalization, Extremism, and Conspiracy Thinking at Maastricht University. His main research interests include belief in conspiracy theories, radicalization, and human morality.
Giuliana Spadaro received her PhD in 2018 from the University of Torino. She is an Assistant Professor of Social Psychology at VU Amsterdam and co-director of the Cooperation Databank. Her main research interests include institutions, trust, and human cooperation.