Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities

This study estimated the potential impact of climate change on future heat-related and cold-related mortality across 854 European urban areas under various climate, demographic, and adaptation scenarios. The findings indicate that, in the absence of adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently surpasses any reduction in cold-related deaths across all scenarios considered in Europe.

Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), projections estimate a net increase in climate change-related mortality by 49.9%, resulting in a cumulative 2,345,410 deaths (95% confidence interval: 327,603 to 4,775,853) between 2015 and 2099. Even under high adaptation scenarios, the net effect remains positive, with a 50% risk attenuation still proving insufficient to counteract the overall trend under SSP3-7.0. Regional variations suggest a slight net decrease in death rates in Northern European countries, whereas the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe exhibit higher vulnerability. Without the implementation of strong mitigation and adaptation measures, most European cities are expected to experience an increase in temperature-related mortality burdens.