Multi-temporal relative sea level rise scenarios up to 2150 for the Venice lagoon

This study analyzes future scenarios of relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the Venice Lagoon, Italy, up to the year 2150. Using a multidisciplinary approach, it combines climatic projections from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) with precise geodetic measurements from GNSS and InSAR data. The goal is to evaluate how global sea level rise—driven by climate change—and localized land subsidence will affect flooding in 11 key areas of the lagoon, including Venice city, industrial zones, the airport, and the MoSE flood barrier system. The study builds high-resolution Digital Surface Models (DSMs) using LiDAR data to map projected flooding under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).

The study finds that by 2150, up to 153 cm of RSLR could occur in high-emission scenarios, threatening over 130 km² of land. Land subsidence is highly variable across the lagoon, intensifying flood risk especially near coastal and urban infrastructure. Critical structures like the MoSE barriers—designed to withstand water levels up to 3 meters—may become insufficient, potentially submerged during extreme events. By 2150, up to 65% of land could be flooded under worst-case projections. The findings underscore urgent needs for improved risk planning, infrastructure adaptation, and climate mitigation to preserve this UNESCO World Heritage Site.