Key concepts
- Climate Central's Coastal Risk Finder provides maps and analysis of the people, homes, and land at risk from worsening coastal flooding driven by rising seas in the contiguous U.S.
- Around 2.5 million Americans in 1.4 million homes live in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050 under projections that assume global pledged commitments to reduce carbon pollution are met.
- Florida, New York, and New Jersey have the most people and homes in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood.
- Older adults are disproportionately exposed to coastal flood risk. Nearly 540,000 people aged 65 and older live in at-risk areas.
- Age is one of several demographic factors that contribute to an individual's vulnerability to flooding. Coastal Risk Finder provides detailed demographic information to help users explore coastal flood risk within local communities.
Climate Central's Coastal Risk Finder mapping resource uses open-access data from multiple federal agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. See Methodology for details.
Introducing Coastal Risk Finder
In the U.S., coastal floods now happen three times more often than they did 30 years ago - and the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding are projected to increase into the future. By 2050, floods are expected to happen 10 times more often than they do today.
This accelerating flood risk is driven by our warming climate, which is causing sea levels around the world to rise. Rising sea levels push tides and storm surges higher and farther inland.
Climate Central's Coastal Risk Finder provides maps and analysis of the people, homes, and land projected to be at risk from worsening coastal flooding driven by rising seas in different U.S. geographies under various scenarios or pathways for reducing heat-trapping pollution.
Click the downloadable video: User Guide for Media Professionals: Kelly Van Baalen, Project Manager
Data and visuals from Coastal Risk Finder support storytelling about the communities at risk from coastal flooding and rising seas - and the ways they're adapting.
Users can get local coastal flood projections in the contiguous U.S. states and the District of Columbia, which can help them understand who and what is at risk in their communities. They can also learn about adaptation projects happening in each coastal state and additional actions they could take.
Explore the tool or check out our user guides for media professionals, government officials, community leaders, and more.
Click the downloadable graphic: States at Risk from Coastal Floods
People and homes at risk
Using data from Coastal Risk Finder, Climate Central analyzed who and what are at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050, assuming global pledged commitments to reduce carbon pollution are met and result in long-term warming consistent with the SSP2-4.5 pollution pathway. A severe flood is defined here as a coastal flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in a given year (also known as a 100-year flood). See Methodology for details.
Around 2.5 million people in 1.4 million homes in the U.S. currently live in areas projected to be at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050.
Click the downloadable graphic: Counties at Risk from Coastal Floods
Risks in coastal states
Florida, New York, and New Jersey have the most people and homes in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050.
Table: States with the most people and homes currently in areas at risk from a severe (100-year) coastal flood in 2050 under the current commitments pathway (SSP2-4.5).
| State | Population at risk | Homes at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Florida | 505,000 | 355,000 |
| New York | 445,000 | 188,000 |
| New Jersey | 324,000 | 232,000 |
| Louisiana | 313,000 | 140,000 |
| Massachusetts | 174,000 | 90,000 |
| Virginia | 146,000 | 71,000 |
| California | 112,000 | 46,000 |
| Texas | 78,000 | 56,000 |
| North Carolina | 67,000 | 50,000 |
| South Carolina | 67,000 | 45,000 |
Social vulnerability and coastal flooding
Many factors can affect an individual's capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from a flood. These factors influencing social vulnerability include age, vehicle access, income, and English proficiency, among others.
Coastal Risk Finder incorporates social vulnerability data based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Community Resilience Estimates and facilitates exploration of coastal flood risk exposure by demographic groups.
Three out of every four (1.8 million) Americans who live in areas at risk from a severe flood in 2050 have at least one component of risk, and one in four (620,000) have at least three.
Older adults more at risk from coastal floods
Age is one of the factors that contribute to a person's vulnerability to coastal flood risk. Of the total population living in areas in the contiguous U.S. at risk of a severe coastal flood in 2050, more than one-fifth (22% or 540,000 people) are age 65 or older, despite comprising only 16% of the total population in coastal states.
Read Climate Central's report, Coastal Flood Risks Across the U.S., or explore Coastal Risk Finder for more analysis on the people and places at risk from coastal floods in the contiguous U.S.