Civil Unrest

Primary reference(s)

Kalyvas, S., 2000. The logic of violence in civil war: theory and preliminary results. Estudio/Working Paper 2000/151. June 2000.

Additional scientific description

Despite wide use, there is no commonly used definition for ‘civil unrest’. The term does not feature in the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, although related terms, such as riot, terrorism, protest and violent disorder are defined in some national legislation. The United Kingdom’s (1986) Public Order Act (United Kingdom Government, 1986), for example, defines riot and violent disorder. Academic and non-legal definitions are available, as outlined below. Some authors emphasise the explicit non-state affiliation in their definition of ‘civil’ unrest, while others are less clear about the state and non-state contribution. An important distinction is that civil unrest is largely understood to take place in times of peace (Kalyvas, 2000), although not exclusively as noted below by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Instances of civil unrest can take place over short or long timeframes, and are widely although not exclusively, understood to be urban acts (Kalyvas, 2000).

While acts such as peaceful protests can have no or relatively minimal disturbance, violent riots can result in deaths, destruction of property and infrastructure (Evans, 1993; Braha, 2012). In the case of civil unrest in Los Angeles in 1992, for example, violence resulted in 53 deaths, 2325 reported injuries and more than USD 735 million in damage to buildings (Evans, 1993).

Civil unrest is generally understood to include violent and non-violent group acts such as riots, protest, isolated and sporadic acts of violence (Braha, 2012; Lawand, 2012; Basedau et al., 2018). The perceived or actual motivation for the act is often emphasised when describing collective action as civil unrest, alongside a clash with authority (Ramakrishnan et al., 2014). Frequently cited explanations include tension or dissatisfaction over political, economic or social changes/conditions (Kalyvas, 2000). According to Basedau et al. (2018:5) ‘One can conceptualize civil unrest as a special form of collective action and people need to be motivated and able to exert it.’ Braha (2012) defined civil unrest as a ‘form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history’, while Oncevay et al. (2020) defined it as ‘public manifestations, where people demonstrate their position for different causes’.

Kalyvas (2000:3) defined civil unrest as “a term that includes limited political violence (such as acts of ‘terrorism’, individual assassinations, etc.), sporadic violent collective action (such as riots), or nonviolent and mildly violent collective action (such as protests, demonstrations, etc.) – all of which tend to take place in times of peace.” In contrast, according to Melzer (2009), as part of guidance from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on International Humanitarian Law, civil unrest can also take place in times of armed conflict, and can be contextualised as follows:

“During armed conflict, political demonstrations, riots, and other forms of civil unrest are often marked by high levels of violence and are sometimes responded to with military force. In fact, civil unrest may well result in death, injury and destruction and, ultimately, may even benefit the general war effort of a party to the conflict by undermining the territorial authority and control of another party through political pressure, economic insecurity, destruction and disorder. It is therefore important to distinguish direct participation in hostilities – which is specifically designed to support a party to an armed conflict against another – from violent forms of civil unrest, the primary purpose of which is to express dissatisfaction with the territorial or detaining authorities.”

Metrics and numeric limits

Given the lack of a single definition, it is unsurprising that there are no commonly agreed metrics or numerical limits for the term. Attempts have been made to forecast civil unrest using open source indicators (such as Ramakrishnan et al., 2014), although the most commonly used conflict data sets do not define civil unrest. For example, the term is not commonly defined or used by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED, 2019) or the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ACLED does however offer definitions for different forms of violent and non-violent action which could all fall under the definition of civil unrest, such as protest and riot. Similarly, the Social Conflict Database (SCAD, 2017) does not provide a single definition for civil unrest but offers several definitions which may be classed as forms of civil unrest. These are: organised demonstration; spontaneous demonstration; organised violent riot; spontaneous violent riot; general strike; and limited strike.

Of the numerous challenges in defining and measuring civil unrest, a particular challenge is translation into standard equivalents in other languages, and the inclusion/exclusion of the ‘civil’ aspect. For example, in Spanish it can be translated as ‘guerra’ while others translate it is as ‘revueltas civiles’, ‘disturbios civiles’ or as ‘descontento social’ only. French offers a range of similar translations. The transnational aspects of civil unrest also seem to be lacking.

Examples of drivers, outcomes and risk management

Documented operational risk management for civil unrest includes preparedness and response by the US Fire Administration, and Emergency Medical Services, in response to their understanding that: “…Civil unrest may occur as a period of social upheaval during heightened community tension or at mass gatherings such as sporting events, concerts and political conventions” (USFA, 2020). The public health sector also offers frameworks for violence prevention interventions as well as responses, as documented by the World Health Organization (Krug et al., 2002).

Successful outcomes are generally regarded as cessation of physical violence and restoration of civic order.