Causal loss analysis (CLA) expert

Global databases of damage and loss from natural disasters (CATDAT) and socio-economic indicators from previous work will be used to develop a methodology that allows analysing and identifying the causal factors which aggravate losses in recent large-scale natural disasters. We will deal primarily with earthquakes and hydro-meteorological disasters which are analysed with regard to social, economic, infrastructure, environmental and intangible losses with different implications on the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction process.

In order to identify aggravating factors influencing loss we have to be able to compare disasters in terms of their overall impact with past similar events for countries or regions. By matching patterns between disaster events through the selection of key comparable parameters, such as the Human Development Index (HDI), the aim is to project historic events (of the past 40 to 50 years) to present conditions using the parsimonious modelling approach and the concept of socio-economic fragility functions (Daniell, 2013).

For a given HDI level we will develop a standard capacity relation between the intensity of impact (for instance in numbers of affected people) and losses. This serves as a reference model with which non-standard loss observations can be compared. The latter will be represented as aggravating or relieving factors caused by circumstances that have to be identified and analysed for each particular case separately. We will examine the corruption index, political stability and governance, level of disaster risk reduction and other established indicators in the literature.

The ideal candidate should have a solid background in disaster loss modeling including socio-economic aspects, and preferably hold a PhD. The candidate would work in an interdisciplinary team of engineers, natural and social scientists. Work should start on July 1, 2013.

Salary will be according to KIT conditions and qualifications.