Project consultant, GFDRR track I (ASEAN countries)

Background

Asia as a whole accounts for over 60% of the world’s population and accounts for 87 percent of disaster casualties worldwide. People, communities, and even governments in disaster-prone countries still are ill-prepared for addressing or coping with disaster risk or vulnerabilities.

In the first nine months of 2008, disasters across Asia and the Pacific accounted for 37% of the world’s total, accounted for more 99% of the worlds reported victims, more than 94% of people affected, and over 87% of overall economic damage.

Recent studies also prove that disasters continue to disproportionately affect the poor, in the poorest countries. The largest share of deaths in Asia and the Pacific were in the least developed countries, with nearly 135,000 deaths. In the 15 years between 1990 and 2005 the region’s high-income economies lost just 8,881 lives in disasters. With few financial assets or options to diversify their livelihoods the most vulnerable are the poor. South East Asia reported the highest deaths and had the highest mortality rate.

Natural disasters are a major strain on human, financial and natural resources, which could otherwise be dedicated towards economic and social development. National and regional efforts to reduce the risks from natural disasters should be a national and regional priority and be closely linked with programs to alleviate poverty and promote economic and social development. Obviously national governments will have to take most of these measures themselves, they can benefit considerably from regional cooperation, sharing experiences in disaster management, and developing the necessary infrastructure. With the increasing occurrence and severity of natural disasters, the need to adopt disaster risk reduction strategies to protect the vulnerable against disasters increases in urgency.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. The only country that is otherwise included as part of Southeast Asia but is not a member is Timor-Leste.

The ASEAN region has a population of over 575 million (2007) of this the highest population is in Indonesia (around 40 %) followed by Philippines and Vietnam (around 15% each). Thailand comprises 10%. The remaining 20% is distributed among the remaining 6 members. Brunei has a population of 396,000 representing approximately .08 % of the total Southeast Asians have lived with disasters, struggled against them, coped with calamities that displace entire communities, ruin livelihoods, destroy property, damage the environment, and take lives. Each year, the region is battered by powerful typhoons that cause flooding and landslides. In addition the region faces risks from forest fires, earthquake, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis that threaten life and property; and drought that leave serious lingering effects.

To take an example of Indonesia, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, in a single day, killed over a quarter of a million people and affected the lives and prospects of over two million people more. In Indonesian province of Aceh, poverty rates suddenly shot up from 30% to 50%; not to mention to the impact on school buildings or education, or infants/children and their mothers, or the damage to basic infrastructure, particularly, safe water and sanitation and health.

Over 133 thousand people were killed or went missing in Myanmar with an estimated 2.4 million people affected because of cyclone Nargis. The mortality ratio, per 100,000 deaths was 28,000, the highest ever in the world. Close to 60 per cent of all households in the affected area lost their houses and a large number of families lost all or a significant proportion of their food stocks. Over 600,000 hectares of agricultural land was flooded, killing around 50 per cent of draught animals, destroying economic assets and washing away family assets. Total economic damage was more than $10 billion.

One of the most enduring affects, however, was that people lost their livelihoods. On 21 June 2008, Typhoon Fengshen in the Philippines affected at least 4 million people and left 573 dead in just four hours. Damages were estimated at $ 95.2 million. The typhoon caused widespread damage to the agricultural and fishing industries and ruined more than 300 schools at an estimated replacement cost of $ 4.7 million.

Added to these costs is the long-term damage to human development, as children have been forced to delay schooling or had their education cut short. When communities around the globe are struggling to attain the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, especially in terms of health, food, water security and poverty alleviation, as well as to increase their effectiveness in preventing and mitigating natural disasters (most directly related to weather, climate and water hazards), this situation is difficult to accept.

Rationale/Objectives of the study

Bearing in mind these challenges, but also the opportunities presented by ASEAN historical and persisting areas of strength, the World Bank, UNISDR, through the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), and in collaboration with other international partners have started support implementing the ASEAN Agreement for Disaster Management Emergency Response (AADMER) to promote sustainable development in ASEAN region.

The Hyogo Framework for Action, endorsed by 168 countries and coordinated by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, provides nations and communities the roadmap to disaster-proof the significant development gains measured across Asia-Pacific over the last generation.

The assignment will be undertaken within the scope of the tri-partite Memorandum of Cooperation between ASEAN, UNISDR and the WB and its objective is to develop a Synthesis Report on ASEAN Member States Disaster Risks by carrying out a desk review of already available reports, studies, maps, analysis and assessments regarding disaster risk (vulnerability and hazards) carried out at the country and regional levels.

The resulting Synthesis Report on ASEAN Member States Disaster Risks should present a comprehensive vulnerability assessment for ASEAN countries in two dimensions, natural hazard and vulnerability.

The findings and data should be incorporated in a simplified quantitative risk assessment to determine the potential of social and economic loss and the scope.

The results of the risk assessment should be synthesized in a comprehensive report including user-friendly formats, graphs and maps. It should also prioritize the countries that warranted for developing projects for mitigation.

The hazards to be included in this assignment are: typhoon, flood, earthquake, landslide, drought, forest fire, and tsunami.

Particular attention should be given the increasing risks in urban centers in view of increasing risk arising from climate change.

Specific Functions/Tasks/Duties

Scope of work
- Task 1: Compile and review existing hazard, vulnerability, risk data, and reports for each ASEAN country and assess existing capacities and identify needs, means of cooperation, and investment priorities to promote disaster risk in the region. This should include but not limited to reports and data from WB, UN, CRED, OCHA, ISDR, ASEAN, Munich-Re and Swiss Re, National Authorities, and ESCAP among others (including the country risk profiles prepared by the WB’s EAP unit for Philippines, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Indonesia, the Global Assessment Report (GAR), and “Climate change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia” funded by Sida, CIDA, IDRC/CRDI and E&E Program for Southeast Asia), and cover (a) collection and analysis of data on the historical losses due to disasters (by hazard type); (b) analysis of projected losses in absence of mitigation investments.

- Task 2: Prepare a regional overview of the hazards, vulnerabilities, and risks and highlight common risks, and any discernible trends.

- Task 3: Identify priority areas for detailed risk assessments (such as certain Mega-cities) and prepare draft Terms of Reference (TOR) templates for these activities.

- Task 4: Create risk maps tailored to selected countries using GAR PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform.

- Task 5: Once the vulnerability assessment, i.e. Synthesis Report is completed, its results are expected to be presented to the ASEAN countries at a high-level regional meeting where agreements will be sought on the prioritization of the next steps, including the in-depth assessment of regional cooperation in disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness, and country specific needs assessments.

Geographic Coverage
This study will aim to cover all ASEAN Member countries.

Performance indicators
- Draft Assessment Report, including the lists of available and obtained reports, studies, analysis and assessments regarding disaster risk (vulnerability and hazards) carried out at the country and regional levels: 10 weeks after contract signing

- Draft Final Report, including findings, conclusions and solid recommendations for next steps, i.e. for the assessment of existing capacities, at national and regional level, for WB and UN ISDR review: 14 weeks after contract signing

- Final Report, CD Rom and Print: within 16 weeks after contract signing.

Minimum Requirements

The following qualifications and experiences are required for the completion of the assignment:

Qualifications
University degree in economics, business management or relevant discipline related to disaster risk reduction. A combination of relevant academic qualifications and experience may be accepted.

Work Experience
- At least seven years of progressively responsible experience in the specific program area associated with the disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response issues, risk assessment, climate change and policy analysis. Experience working with and first hand-knowledge of the international system including the United Nations and others.
- Qualitative evaluation skills including evaluation design, defining data collection needs and tools, data summary and interpretation, and conducting evaluations with substantial stakeholder involvement.
- Familiar with the key international and regional entities that are active players in capacity building in the disaster risk management fields. Strategic thinking and planning expertise. Familiarity with South East Asia desirable.
- Fluent English and excellent report drafting abilities. Fluency in a local language (SEA) would be a plus.

Core Competencies
- Professionalism
Knowledge and understanding of theories, concepts and approaches relevant to hydrometry management in particular global environmental change experience; Knowledge in both developed and developing countries; conceptual, analytical and evaluative skills to conduct independent research and analysis

- Communication
Speaks and writes clearly and effectively; listens to others, correctly interprets messages from others and responds appropriately; asks questions to clarify, and exhibits interest in having two-way communication; demonstrates openness in sharing information and keeping people informed

- Planning & Organizing
Develops clear goals that are consistent with agreed strategies; identifies priority activities and assignments; Adjusts priorities as required; uses time efficiently

- Teamwork
Works collaboratively with colleagues to achieve organizational goals; solicits input by genuinely valuing others’ ideas and expertise; is willing to learn from others; places team agenda before personal agenda; supports and acts in accordance with final group decision, even when such decisions may not entirely reflect own position; shares credit for team accomplishments and accepts joint responsibility for team shortcomings