Terms of Reference (ToR) Consultant/firm/institution to conduct analysis and write case study report on climate risk and limits to adaptation in coastal regions of Somalia and Somaliland

Background

As demonstrated by the IFRC report “Cost of Doing Nothing”, failure to limit global warming is expected to increase the number of people in need of humanitarian aid as a result of storms, droughts and floods to beyond 200 million annually – compared to an estimated 108 million today. IPCC Assessment Report 5 and Special Report 1.5 describe and identify limits to adaptation - “points beyond which actors’ objectives are compromised by intolerable risks threatening key objectives such as good health or broad levels of well-being”. Some most-vulnerable communities are already facing these limits, as increasing climate shocks and stresses threaten the safety and resilience of people and settlements.

Many coastal communities are particularly vulnerable due to their exposure to sea-level rise, tropical storms, and environmental damage to critical ecosystems that sustain lives and livelihoods. The climate crisis in these regions are escalating dramatically before our eyes, with climate impacts on livelihoods, housing and ecosystems compounding to erode the sustainability of settlements and progressively closing off adaptations options.

There is an urgent need to take action to stop the climate crisis and support those who are already affected by it. Progress on emission reductions and climate finance efforts are, however, lagging behind what is needed to contain the growing climate crisis.

In this context and within the framework of the 2021-2023 cooperation agreement with the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Red Cross (NorCross) seeks to hire a consultant/firm to conduct a desk review and write a case study report as an input to a joint NorCross and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (hereafter RCCC) report on coastal climate risk and limits to adaptation. The case study report will be used as input in the formulation of an advocacy report to be launched on the occasion of COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021.

Purpose, audience, and scope

NorCross and RCCC will be producing a media and advocacy report on “Coastal climate risks and limits to adaptation” to be launched in global media on the occasion of COP26. The report will be aimed at an audience of policymakers, governments, donors, humanitarian partners, and will support and inform advocacy for (a) investment in adaptive actions with results at the local level, and (b) the to reduce emissions and avoid 2* C (or higher) warming scenarios.

The planned report will present the climate risk characteristics of coastal areas in the context of opportunities and limitations to adaptation, and illustrate these through regional1 case studies from specific countries.

To ensure that the case studies build on local knowledge, expertise and experience, NorCross and the RCCC will partner with local journalists to develop the photo stories, and local consultants/firms/institutions to conduct an analysis of existing knowledge and write a case report on climate risk and adaptation options and limits in each location. These stories and case reports will be used as inputs in the development of the advocacy report. They will also be shared with the Somalia Red Crescent Society, who will consider whether the case reports should also be disseminated discretely in country.

The present ToR concern the consultant/firm/institution which will undertake the case study on coastal Somalia and Somaliland.

The purpose of the consultancy is to investigate and present a case study on the nature and scale of scale of climate risks faced in the region, and identity soft and hard limits to adaptation faced by people and communities in these areas.

The case report is expected to answer the following research questions:

1. What are the key hazards (including both sudden and slow-onset events) affecting the region, and what evidence is there for climate change impact on their frequency, intensity and location?
2. What is known about the present and historic impact of these climate-sensitive hazards, in terms of loss of life, health impacts, economic losses and damages, and displacement?
3. What are the projected changes in future frequency, intensity, location and impact of these climate-sensitive hazards?
4. What are the characteristics of the population exposed to these hazards (e.g. population size, livelihoods, settlement and housing patterns, health and nutrition levels, socioeconomic organization)?
5. What determines the vulnerability of this population to climate change and their capacity to manage climate risks?
6. Which adaptation options can most effectively address these vulnerabilities and/or capitalize on existing capacities, and what are the factors limiting their successful implementation?

Methodology

The consultant/team is expected to utilize a methodology which encompasses the following components:

• Based on the consultant/team’s pre-existing knowledge of the coastal region in question, development of a 2-3 page description of approach, methodology and report outline to be discussed and agreed upon by the consultant/team, NorCross and RCCC, with a goal of ensuring common understanding of task ahead;
• Collect and review existing scientific literature, hazard and exposure data, vulnerability and risk data, climate and disaster impact data, statistical data, displacement data, climate data and projections, DRR/adaptation programme/project data or any other already available material or records (from government, NGOs/civil society organisations, multilateral organisations and other research) that can shed light on the climate risks faced by the population in the area;
• Collect and review national and coastal region-specific climate, disaster risk and environmental policies, frameworks, strategies, plans, scientific literature, and other documents that shed light on the policy and financing space for coastal climate change;
• If necessary, interview key informants in the coastal region to triangulate information on areas with ambiguous evidence;
• Based on review of the collected data and documents, analyse present and future climate risk adaptation options, and limits to adaptation in this coastal region;
• Produce a report of maximum 5,000 words presenting the main findings in relation to the research questions. The report must be in an accessible language, with use of tables, existing maps and figures where necessary. The report should clearly cite all references used;
• Adaptation options should be presented according to the following schema:
  • Risk information systems and services,
  • Awareness, education and knowledge,
  • Governance,
  • Risk transfer mechanism,
  • Risk-proofed built environment and protective infrastructure,
  • Nature-based solutions,
  • Livelihood adaptations,
  • Early Warning and preparedness for response and recovery
  • Planned retreat

Deliverables and timeline

Estimated start-up is as soon as possible, with latest possible completion date September 20th 2021. The following deliverables and timelines are expected from the consultant:

1. Outline of approach, methodology and report outline: short (2-3 pages) outline of proposed structure with a goal of ensuring common understanding of task ahead – one week after the contract is signed.
2. The first draft: A first draft of the report for review by NorCross, RCCC, Somalia Red Crescent Society – three weeks after the contract is signed.
3. Final draft: The consultant will share a revised draft of the report – five weeks after the contract, at latest September 20th 2021.

All deliverables to be submitted in English.

The fees will be paid upon invoice from the Consultant/firm/institution.

• 20% payment will be delivered upon receipt of invoice and report outline.
• 80% payment will be delivered upon receipt and approval of the final report.

Quality and ethical standards

The author(s) should take all reasonable steps to ensure that the final product demonstrates respect and protect the rights and welfare of people and the communities of which they are members. It is also expected that the consultant will respect the seven Fundamental Principles of the Red Cross and Red Crescent: 1) humanity, 2) impartiality, 3) neutrality, 4) independence, 5) voluntary service, 6) unity, and 7) universality. Further information can be obtained about these principles at: www.ifrc.org/what/values/principles/index.asp

Qualifications

The competency requirements for the consultancy are:

• Consultant/all team members must have advanced degree in climate science, earth sciences,

or relevant degree in social sciences, or Bachelor’s degree with substantial work experience (10+ years) in directly relevant field.

• In-depth knowledge and professional experience from climate change adaptation and/or disaster risk management research, programming or evaluation in Somalia and/or Somaliland.
• Demonstrated experience of climate risk analysis. Specific expertise on coastal climate risk analysis an asset.
• Demonstrated excellence in narrative reporting and at least five years’ experience in doing similar work.
• Fluency in English and excellent analytical and writing skills.
• Knowledge and experience working with the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement preferred.

Eligibility requirement:

According to Norwegian tax law, NorCross can only enter consultancy contracts with companies registered as legal entities with their respective tax authorities. E.g. individual consultants must be self-employed with a registered company in the country where they are taxable.

Application procedure

The Consultant/agency should submit a technical proposal for how to carry out the assignment and the consultancy fee.

Proposals will be ranked according to how they fulfil the three following requirements:

• Qualifications (50%)
• Methodological approach (25%)
• Price (25%)

Interested candidates should submit their application materials by 5th August 2021 to:

Cathrine Tranberg Haarsaker [Senior Advisor Climate Analysis] cathrine.tranberg.harsaker@redcross.no

Application materials should include:

1. Technical proposal not exceeding three pages including a) project background, b) proposed report structure, c) any ethical considerations, and d) work plan.
2. A confirmation of your status as an institution/firm or (in case of individual consultant) independent contractor or employee of consultancy firm or research institution (for contracting purposes).
3. Curricula Vitae (CV) for consultant / all members of the team applying for consideration, with the contact details of three professional referees.
4. Financial proposal in USD itemizing estimated costs for services rendered (daily consultancy fees) and any other related supplies or services required for the consultancy.
5. At least one sample report similar to that described in this TOR.

Application material are non-returnable, and we thank you in advance for understanding that only short-listed candidates will be contacted for the next step in the application process.

According to Norwegian tax law, NorCross can only enter consultancy contracts with companies registered as legal entities with their respective tax authorities.

Estimated start-up is as soon as possible, 12th August 2021 at latest.