GAR 2013 Main Report

156 Part II - Chapter 10

Countries expected to contribute to this growth include Kazakhstan, Russian Federation and Ukraine for wheat; and Argentina, Brazil as well as several Sub-Saharan countries for coarse grain.

Rising global food prices are being driven by several factors. These include rising demand for food owing to population growth, urbanisation and changing

food consumption patterns, particularly in rapidly growing low and middle-income countries; high crude oil prices; use of agricultural commodities for the production of biofuels; and lower global stocks (FAO, 2012c

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2012c.,Price volatility from a global perspective., Technical background document for the high-level event on: “Food Price volatility and the role of speculation”, 6 July 2012. Paper prepared by the FAO Trade and Markets Division (EST)., Rome,Italy.. .

; OECD and FAO, 2012; FAO et al., 2011; World Bank, 2008b

World Bank. 2008b.,World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development., Washington DC: World Bank,. .

). For example, although consumption is expected to increase for all products in all regions, meat consumption in low-income countries in particular is expected to increase to double that in high-income countries; the reason for the strong demand is increasing per capita income and population growth, especially with large growing middle classes (Figure 10.6).

The balance of supply and demand, however, does not directly translate into prices in the agricultural commodity market. National food security policies, such as export restrictions and hoarding, can prevent produced commodities from being traded in the global market. Price volatility and international price spikes are further catalysed by factors such as the concentration of production in a few hazard-exposed regions, declining stocks, the role of commodity markets and weather and climate related disasters. Despite this, global market projections for

(Source: UNISDR based on OECD and FAO, 2012)

(Source: UNISDR based on OECD and FAO. 2012)

Figure 10.6 Expected increase in the consumption of crops and livestock in developing countries ⁱ (percent change in consumption: 2021 relative to average 2009–2011)

Figure 10.7 Global production and prices of ethanol and biodiesel, 2005–2021