The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), one of the world’s leading institutes for economic, political and social analysis, provides, among other information services, economic forecasts, risk and country briefings to businesses and public sector actors alike. These briefings and underlying data are widely used and globally referenced, and thus have a substantial level of influence on the public understanding of future risks and economic projections. These country and sector forecasts do not include risks associated with natural hazards, as the methodology of the EIU explicitly excludes assessments of future hazard and risk.

For example, the 2012 country report of Indonesia, one of the world’s highly hazard-prone countries, does not address disaster risk at all (EIU, 2012a). The 2012 Kenya country report addresses drought risk more clearly. However, it is not integrated in the economic forecast model. Instead the report describes that policy-making will remain vulnerable to exogenous shocks, which include drought and volatile commodity prices, and continues to warn that droughts would pose downside risks to GDP growth forecasts, calculated at 4.8 percent for 2013 (EIU, 2012b).

However, specific analysis that is tailor-made for individual clients may include disaster risk analysis upon request. Further, in the aftermath of a disaster, regular country reports do refer to these events and their impacts on economic performance. For example, in case of Haiti, which was recently hit by tropical storms, including Hurricane Sandy, and is still in the reconstruction process, the country report addresses disaster risk in several places. Thus, the economic impact of past disasters caused, for example, by agricultural loss or physical capital damage is woven into the economic forecast, but the probability of future disaster risk is not (EIU, 2012c).

Although excluding disaster risk from standard forecasts may seem surprising from a disaster risk manager’s point of view, from the perspective of an economic forecaster, it makes good sense. For example, the short time period of forecasts—two years in the case of EIU forecasts—means that including disaster risk probabilities is a tricky exercise.

New developments in probabilistic risk modelling and assessments, however, and increasingly sophisticated concepts of resilient economies and supply chains in the business sector could change this trend and help the emergence of a new generation of economic forecasts. The EIU has recognised the significant impact that disaster events can have on economic and business performance and is therefore considering an integration of relevant indicators for disaster risk into its models (EIU, 2012d). Although in its infancy, this process could greatly enhance the understanding of other dimensions of economic and business resilience than those currently dominating and limiting investment decision-making.