GAR 2013 Main Report

Part I - Chapter 2

and economic assets to suffer loss and damage—in other words, their vulnerability. And vulnerability has also been modified by economic globalisation.

In general, higher-income countries and those with rapid economic growth over recent decades have successfully reduced their mortality risk. With economic development, capacities in disaster and emergency management generally improve. Since 2007, countries reporting progress against the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) have consistently highlighted good progress in strengthening disaster preparedness and response and in developing institutional and legislative capacities to do so (UNISDR, 2009

UNISDR. 2009.,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and poverty in a changing climate., United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction., Geneva,Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

and 2011).

With improved transport infrastructure and health facilities, which facilitate evacuation and prompt medical attention, this leads to reduced vulnerability, at least in the case of floods and tropical cyclones, even though the exposed population increases (Kahn, 2005; UNISDR, 2011

UNISDR. 2011.,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development., United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction., Geneva,Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

). For example, it was estimated that mortality risk associated with tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific fell by 50 percent between 1980 and 2010 (UNISDR, 2011

) although exposure increased by about 160 percent.

In contrast, in regions with slower economic growth, mortality risk is still high. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, flood mortality risk has been growing consistently since 1980 (UNISDR, 2011

) because the rapid increase in exposure has not been accompanied by a commensurable reduction in vulnerability. These examples confirm that the underlying risk drivers as identified in previous Global Assessment Reports are key challenges for several countries.

Figure 2.4 compares an index of mortality risk (UNISDR, 2009

) with an index of competitiveness (WEF, 2012

WEF (World Economic Forum). 2012.,The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013., World Economic Forum., Geneva,Switzerland.. .

) and an index of conditions and capabilities for disaster risk reduction—for example, managing urban development, setting up effective governance structures, protecting the environment and alleviating poverty and vulnerability (DARA, 2012

DARA. 2012.,Risk Reduction Index., Updated global data table provided to UNISDR in support of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.. .

). Some countries, such as Haiti, Madagascar

and Sierra Leone, have not been successful in attracting investment, have low capacities to manage disaster risks and have high mortality risk.

Many countries have been far less successful, in contrast, in reducing the vulnerability of their produced capital, including housing, infrastructure and productive assets. Low and middle-income countries, in particular, report that they are challenged to use tools such as land-use planning, environmental management and building codes to reduce these vulnerabilities (UNISDR, 2009

and 2011). As a consequence, as mortality risk has decreased in successful economies, economic disaster risk has been increasing in concert with the growth in exposure (Neumeyer and Barthel, 2010). In some regions, including in OECD countries, the risk of losing produced capital in disasters may now be growing faster than the capital being produced (UNISDR, 2011

; Hallegatte, 2011).

Earthquake mortality risk differs from the mortality risk associated with floods and tropical cyclones. While warning systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated, earthquake mortality is closely correlated to building collapse. This implies that earthquake-prone countries with rapidly growing econo-

(Source: UNISDR, based on the WEF Competitiveness Index 2011; GAR Mortality Risk Index 2011; DARA Risk Reduction Index 2012)

Figure 2.4 Countries with high mortality risk, low competitiveness and weak conditions and capabilities for risk reduction