Anticipating tropical cyclones in Madagascar: Start Network’s experience

Since 2021, Start Network has been anticipating tropical cyclones in Madagascar, financing anticipation and early-response projects implemented by its members in the country. During this time, there have been four different projects, and Start Network has learned important lessons from each.

The Start Network tropical cyclone model in Madagascar, currently included in Start Ready Risk Pool 3, is triggered when wind speeds of 166 km/h are recorded up to 72 hours before the cyclone is predicted to land. Ahead of the cyclone season, Start Network members develop contingency plans that can be implemented when this trigger is met; these are supported by pre-positioned funding from the Start Ready financing mechanism. The situation is monitored using forecasts communicated by Meteo Madagascar and, if the trigger is met, funding is released to members to implement their projects (or, in some cases, reimbursed after they have been implemented).

#1 and #2: Cyclones Batsirai and Emnati, 2 and 22 February 2022

The anticipatory action system successfully raised alerts for both cyclones - the first time Start Fund alerts for tropical cyclones were raised before landfall. Start Fund Alert 579 for Cyclone Batsirai, activated 4 days before landfall, released 419,046 British pounds (GBP; approx. 562,00 US dollars) with the actions reaching 41,559 people. Alert 582 for Cyclone Emnati, activated 2 days before landfall, released 216,155 GBP (290,000 US dollars) for actions that reached 220,188 people. Actions included high-reach awareness-raising activities on hygiene and sanitation, and cyclone sensitization. Following this successful pilot, the system was integrated into Start Ready's Risk Pool 1.

Lessons learned

• The immediate relief projects supported people's needs and had a positive impact on their immediate, short-term wellbeing.
• The response was deemed to be timely, and Start Network members were the first to intervene in the allocated areas.
• The 'no/low regrets' policy allowed for more flexibility around uncertainty about the cyclones' formation and trajectories. Several agencies that were ready to operate in areas that were not affected by the cyclone returned their funds.
• Despite pre-agreed plans and pre-positioned financing, the ability to implement before the onset of each cyclone was limited; reasons included the lack of preparedness and funding to act ahead of landfall, as well as fears of accelerating tensions in target communities.
• The evaluation recommended further advanced planning and operational readiness, as well as designing projects with activities that are feasible within the very short anticipation window.

#3: Cyclone Freddy, 22 February and 5 March 2023

Madagascar's cyclone disaster-risk-financing system, included in Start Ready Risk Pool 1, was triggered 72 hours before Cyclone Freddy made landfall. Start Ready disbursed 700,000 GBP (844,400 US dollars) to seven member organizations operating in Vatovavy and Atsimo Andrefana. Based on lessons from the previous year, operational readiness funding called 'National Reserves' of 170,000 GBP were made available to Start Network members and played a crucial role in quick response and preparation, enabling agencies to reach at-risk communities within 24 to 48 hours, for example delivering non-food-item (NFI) kits before landfall. Other activities, including shelter improvements and emergency healthcare, reached 42,409 people.

Cyclone Freddy hit the country again in March, and some Start Network members that had not acted in the areas first affected (on the east coast) were able to act this time, in affected areas on the west coast.

Lessons learned

• The availability of Start Ready national reserves supported agencies' operational readiness to enhance mobilization capacities, establish intervention plans and partnerships, and conduct prior training.
• National reserves also enabled the implementation of no/low regrets anticipatory actions such as purchasing NFI kits in advance and storing them in strategic locations.
• The activities implemented altered the usual negative adaptation mechanisms (e.g., excessive debt, displacement, asset disposal) for 79.1 per cent of the community.
• The pre-identification methods used in vulnerable areas, including a vulnerability tool developed in 2022, supported the member agencies in reaching all identified categories of vulnerable individuals.

#4: Cyclone Gamane, 26 March 2024

Start Ready activated just one day before Cyclone Gamane made landfall, following its rapid intensification and the change in its trajectory; this left an even shorter lead time to implement the anticipatory actions. While the activation, for 1,130,000 GBP (1,429,000 US dollars) were confirmed ahead of landfall, no direct activities were implemented until a few days later, due to the remoteness of the affected areas and having less than 24 hours to mobilize. However, two Start Network members supported local authorities to coordinate the humanitarian response after Gamane made landfall.

"All our arable land was submerged by the flood, so we have lost all hope of a harvest this season, Fortunately, HI's aid has provided us with rice, beans, oil, soap, a bucket, a jerrycan and other materials that are useful for everyday life."

Recipient of one of the multisectoral kits distributed by Humanity and Inclusion (HI) after Cyclone Gamane

Initial lessons learned

At the time of writing, the projects have ended and the implementing agencies are conducting evaluations; these are the initial lessons:

• Start Network members ran into logistical delays beyond their control, such as road closures, which prevented them from using prepared resources in time to deliver the planned activities.
• Access to cyclone-affected areas was especially challenging due to geographical and environmental factors; these remote, landlocked zones are inherently hard to reach, and Cyclone Gamane's flooding damaged many channels, leaving access possible only by boat or a few passable roads.
• Start Network members adapted their projects so that they met the needs of the populations at the time they were reached, meaning they could deliver life-saving assistance to remote areas rather than scramble for funding in the aftermath of the hazard.

Conclusions

Start Network's anticipatory actions in Madagascar have shown significant success, as reflected in the positive feedback from participating communities. When feasible, the activities undertaken mitigated the impacts of the cyclones by improving shelter conditions and enabling faster access to funding - well ahead of traditional humanitarian responses. This also helped communities to avoid negative coping strategies, reinforcing the value of anticipatory planning.

Start Network's preparedness activities not only enhanced community access to social protection, including the national early-warning system for cyclones; they also effectively used the vulnerability tool that targets at-risk communities ahead of cyclone seasons. This targeted support to national coordination mechanisms underscores the importance of anticipatory action in strengthening national disaster-management systems.

These activations ahead of cyclones provide more evidence that operational preparedness and meticulous planning are sine qua non conditions: essential for anticipatory action ahead of fast-onset hazards such as tropical cyclones. Pre-positioned funding is only one part of what is needed; success also hinges on accurate and timely forecasts, as well as the presence of NGOs in high-risk areas. Despite well-designed plans, Start Network's experience also highlights the challenges posed by real-world conditions and the inherent complexity of tropical cyclones.

The anticipatory action sector, like other innovation-driven fields, often focuses narrowly on specific outcomes, potentially overlooking broader achievements when plans do not unfold as intended. However, 'non-successes', such as enhanced locally led action and expedited humanitarian funding, should be recognized as significant progress and vital steps toward more effective disaster management.