Assessing and financing loss and damage due to climate change in Somalia

To support national planning and international advocacy, this report provides policy-makers in Somalia with new estimates of current and potential future climate-attributable losses and damages. If losses and damages triggered by climate change are to be addressed in national and international policy, finance and action, losses and damages need to be specified and estimated.

Some of the key messages of the report are:

• Direct economic impacts from droughts and floods in Somalia that are likely attributable to climate change have amounted to about 3.3% of the country’s GDP between 2000 and 2021. Agriculture and livestock climate-attributable losses and damages are estimated at $2.84 billion, which represents 4.5% of agricultural GDP.

• By the 2050s, in the absence of a significant increase in climate-resilient socioeconomic development action, the cumulative total attributable direct economic loss and damage from floods and droughts could amount to between $5 billion and $100 billion.

• Slow-onset events will also cause significant loss and damage in Somalia. Rising temperatures, increasing rainfall variability and growing evapotranspiration threaten agriculture and livestock production, with the potential for reduced crop yields, increased pest prevalence and livestock health impacts. Sea-level rise endangers coastal regions through flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion of croplands and aquifers.