Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Uganda's agricultural sector: An assessment of maize and coffee value chains

This study provides a comprehensive climate risk analysis for Uganda’s agricultural sector. It aims to offer an in-depth decision-basis for national and local decision-makers on current and future climate risks for agricultural value chains to guide suitable adaptation planning and implementation in the country.

The results of this climate risk analysis show that, in response to increasing GHG concentrations, temperatures in Uganda will increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and by 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050, compared to 2004. The number of hot days and hot nights are projected to steadily increase, with severe temperature extremes especially in the north of Uganda. The majority of models project slight future increases of annual precipitation, but precipitation projections are subjected to high model uncertainties