Climate risk profile: Jordan

This report provides forward-looking data on the climate in Jordan with the goal of supporting resilience-oriented short to long-term planning. The profile summarizes projected climate parameters and related sectoral impacts under two different emissions scenarios from now until 2080.

The climate models employed project that until 2080, under a medium to high emissions scenario, air temperatures will rise by up to 4.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Northwestern and central Jordan will experience a particularly significant increase of very hot days. The projected temperature changes will lead to increased exposure to heatwaves and pose a risk to the population’s ability to work and live. The climate models also include lower certainty projections for parameters including crop yields, GDP exposure to flooding and heatwaves, ecosystems impacts and water availability. Under the medium to high emissions scenario, annual per capita water availability will decline by around 75 % compared to the year 2000, when water shortages were already alarming.