High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding
In this study researchers demonstrate a comprehensive floodplain inundation hindcast of the 2021 European Summer Flood illustrating these possibilities for better disaster preparedness, offering a 17-hour lead time for informed and advisable actions. Despite considerable advances in flood forecasting during recent decades, state-of-the-art, operational flood early warning systems (FEWS) need to be equipped with near-real-time inundation and impact forecasts and their associated uncertainties. Valuable information can now be provided to local authorities for risk-based decision-making by utilizing high-resolution lead-time maps and potential impacts on buildings and infrastructures.
Findings from the publication include:
- An increasing number of national hydro-meteorological services are investing in a paradigm shift from traditional FEWS to high-resolution, impact-based FEWS. However, implementing real-time services on a national scale poses challenges, given the trade-offs involving computational power, operational service scheduling, and data storage archiving.
- The availability of quality data and computational resources is crucial for implementing near-real-time flood impact forecasting. Many regions, especially flood-prone areas, lack essential datasets such as high-resolution soil and terrain data, real-time meteorological observations, and high-resolution atmospheric forecasts.
- More attention needs to be paid to the effective communication of forecast uncertainties. Uncertainties need to be propagated along the entire forecast chain delivering the plausible ranges of flood impact indicators.