3.3 Drought impacts

In internationally reported droughts since 1900, more than 11 million people have died with over 2 billion affected (EM-DAT, 2010b), more than by any other single physical hazard.

Most of the drought-related mortality recorded in EM-DAT, however, occurred in countries also experiencing political and civil conflicts. Also, since the 1990s, internationally recorded drought mortality has been negligible, with only 4,472 fatalities from 1990 to 2009 (EM-DAT, 2010b). Drought impacts are poorly recorded internationally. Reasons include the lack of visible damage outside of the agriculture sector, the high proportion of indirect losses compared to direct losses, and the highly complex nature of drought mortality, which is highly livelihood-dependent (Below et al., 2007).

Due to the absence of systematic data, it is impossible to provide a global assessment of patterns and trends in drought impacts and loss. Available evidence, however, provides a good indication of the magnitude and inter-relatedness of impact on mortality, rural livelihoods, food security, agricultural production, economic and urban development, migration, conflict, the environment and public spending (Table 3.2).

Mortality and well-being	Internationally, drought mortality risk is currently severely under-recorded, and drought mortality may be significantly higher than reported, with many fatalities going unrecorded or attributed to other causes. For example, in Mozambique only 18 deaths were reported internationally between 1990 and 2009. In contrast, Mozambique’s disaster loss database recorded 1,040 deaths for the same period (EM-DAT, 2010b x EM-DAT. 2010b. Global “number killed” and “number affected” by drought between 1900–2009. Brussels, Belgium: Université Catholique de Louvain. . ; INGC, 2010 x INGC (Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Catastrofes). 2010. Drought-related crop damages 1990-2009, by district. Maputo, Mozambique: Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Catastrofes. . ). Poor rural households with livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture are more vulnerable to drought and less able to absorb and buffer the losses. Consequences include increased poverty, reduced human development and negative impacts on health, nutrition and productivity (de la Fuente and Dercon, 2008 x de la Fuente, A. and Dercon, S. 2008. Disasters, growth and poverty in Africa: Revisiting the microeconomic evidence. Background paper prepared for the 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. . ; UNISDR, 2009 x UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2009. Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction: Risk and poverty in a changing climate. Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Click here to go to GAR09 page. ), declining purchasing power and increasing income inequality (Rathore, 2005 x Rathore, M. 2005. State level analysis of drought policies and impacts in Rajasthan, India. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. . ). As with the Navajo, poor rural households can rarely mobilize sufficient assets to buffer crop and livestock losses, while droughts tend to undermine household and community coping mechanisms because large numbers of households are affected simultaneously and for long periods.3
Rural livelihoods, food security and agricultural production	In the Caribbean, the 2009–2010 drought saw the banana harvest on Dominica reduced by 43 percent, agricultural production in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 20 percent below historic averages, and onion and tomato yields in Antigua and Barbuda decline by 25–30 percent. Australia experienced losses of US$2.34 billion during the 2002–2003 drought, reducing national GDP by 1.6 percent. Two thirds of the losses were agricultural, the remainder attributed to knock-on impacts in other economic sectors (Horridge et al., 2005 x Horridge, M., Madden, J. and Wittwer, G. 2005. The impacts of the 2002–2003 drought on Australia. Journal of Policy Modeling 27 (3): 285–308. . ). During the 2002 drought, food grain production in India dropped to 183 million tonnes, compared to 212 million tonnes the previous year (Shaw et al., 2010 x Shaw, R., Nguyen, H., Habiba, U. and Takeuchi, Y. 2010. Drought in Asian Monsoon region. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. . ). In the 2007–2008 drought in the Syrian Arab Republic, 75 percent of the country’s farmers suffered total crop failure, and the livestock population was 50 percent below the pre-drought level more than a year after the drought ended (Erian et al., 2010 x  Erian, W., Katlan, B. and Babah, O. 2010. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study: Syria. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Mozambique is one of the few countries with a disaster database that systematically records drought losses (INGC, 2010 x INGC (Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Catastrofes). 2010. Drought-related crop damages 1990-2009, by district. Maputo, Mozambique: Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Catastrofes. . ), so the real scale of drought risk becomes visible. Since 1990, drought events damaged 8 million hectares of crops (half of which were destroyed) and affected 11.5 million people (Figure 3.7). Thus, international under-reporting of drought losses undermines the visibility of drought risk and the political and economic imperative for its reduction, and also hides the significant implications for livelihoods of small-scale farmers, especially elderly and women farmers and female-headed households.
Urban and economic development	Droughts reduce water supplies for domestic and industrial use, and for power generation, affecting cities and non-agricultural sectors of the economy. During the 1991–1992 drought in Zimbabwe for example, water and electricity shortages and a decline in manufacturing productivity of 9.5 percent resulted in a 2 percent reduction in export receipts (Robinson, 1993 x Robinson, P. 1993. Economic effects of the 1992 drought on the manufacturing sector in Zimbabwe. London, UK: Overseas Development Institute. . ; Benson and Clay, 1998 x Benson, C. and Clay, E. 1998. The impact of drought on sub-Saharan African economies: A preliminary examination. Technical Paper No. 401. Washington DC, USA: The World Bank. . ). The overall cost to the economy of the drought-driven decline in energy production was more than US$100 million and 3,000 jobs (Benson and Clay, 1998 x Benson, C. and Clay, E. 1998. The impact of drought on sub-Saharan African economies: A preliminary examination. Technical Paper No. 401. Washington DC, USA: The World Bank. . ). In 2008, a severe drought in the south-eastern United States of America threatened the water supplies for cooling more than 24 of the nation’s 104 nuclear power reactors. The 2003 European drought and heat wave reduced France’s nuclear power generation capacity by 15 percent for five weeks and also led to a 20 percent reduction in the country’s hydroelectric production (Hightower and Pierce, 2008 x Hightower, M., Pierce, S. 2008. The energy challenge. Nature 452: 285–286. . ). In the middle of Spain’s 1991–1995 drought, hydroelectric production was reduced by 30 percent and 12 million urban residents experienced severely restricted water availability (Mestre, 2010 x  Mestre, A. 2010. Drought monitoring and drought management in Spain. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).
Migration	Droughts are associated with migration. In the Syrian Arab Republic, a million people left rural areas for cities after successive crop failures from 2007–2009 (Erian et al., 2010 x  Erian, W., Katlan, B. and Babah, O. 2010. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study: Syria. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). In response to both recurring droughts and marginal rural livelihoods, half of all rural Mexicans migrated to urban centres during the twentieth century (Neri and Briones, 2010 x  Neri, C. and Briones, F. 2010. Assessing drought risk and identifying policy alternatives for drought risk management. Risks, impacts and social meaning of drought: Characterization of the vulnerability in Sonora, Mexico. Background Paper prepared for the 2010 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). In Rajasthan, India, droughts regularly lead to forced migration, increased debt and borrowing, reduced food consumption, unemployment and poorer health (Rathore, 2005 x Rathore, M. 2005. State level analysis of drought policies and impacts in Rajasthan, India. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. . ). Given that drought occurred in 47 years in the past century, this implies a profound impact on rural livelihoods. Migration leads to changing household decision-making patterns, often resulting in an increase in female-headed households. Case studies from Jordan and Lebanon show that family dynamics and women’s public roles may also change significantly as a result of drought-associated migration (Erian et al., 2010 x  Erian, W., Katlan, B. and Babah, O. 2010. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study: Syria. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).
Conflict	Droughts contribute to the likelihood of conflict by causing displacement and migration, increasing competition for scarce resources and exacerbating ethnic tensions, and by encouraging poor rural farmers to join armed resistance groups (Barnett and Adger, 2007 x Barnett, J. and Adger, W.N. 2007. Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography 26 (6): 639–655. Available at http://www.refworks.com/RWSingle/RefEditTop.asp?M=ALL&S=left(AuthorPrimary,128)%20COLLATE%20Latin1_General_CI_AS%20,%20PubYear%20%20COLLATE%20Latin1_General_CI_AS%20Desc,%20UserRefID&MR=1&N=8&TR=123&rte=true#. ; Reuveny, 2007 x Reuveny, R. 2007. Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Political Geography 26 (6): 656–673. . ). Since the 1950s, droughts precipitated waves of migration and contributed to intense conflicts in India and Bangladesh, and droughts during the 1980s and 1990s were a factor that precipitated ethnic conflict and border skirmishes between Mauritania and Senegal (Reuveny, 2007 x Reuveny, R. 2007. Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Political Geography 26 (6): 656–673. . ). A 1,100-year analysis of drought in equatorial East Africa found evidence of droughtinduced famine, political unrest and large-scale migration during the six centuries before 1895 (Verschuren et al., 2000 x Verschuren, D., Laird, K.R. and Cumming, B.F. 2000. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years. Nature 403 (6768): 410–414. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35000179. ). They may have also helped precipitate the 1910 Mexican Revolution (Neri and Briones, 2010 x  Neri, C. and Briones, F. 2010. Assessing drought risk and identifying policy alternatives for drought risk management. Risks, impacts and social meaning of drought: Characterization of the vulnerability in Sonora, Mexico. Background Paper prepared for the 2010 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). More recently, droughts were associated with riots in Morocco during the 1980s (Swearingen, 1992 x Swearingen, W.D. 1992. Drought hazard in Morocco. Geographical Review 82 (4): 401–412. Available at http://www.jstor.org/stable/215198. ) and contributed to Eritrea’s secession from Ethiopia in 1991 (Reuveny, 2007 x Reuveny, R. 2007. Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Political Geography 26 (6): 656–673. . ).
Environment	Droughts affect habitats, bodies of water, rivers and streams, and can have major ecological impacts, increasing species vulnerability and migration, and loss of biodiversity (Lake, 2003 x Lake, P. 2003. Ecological effects of perturbation by drought in flowing waters. Freshwater Biology 48 (7): 1161–1172. . ; NDMC, 2006 x NDMC. 2006. Impacts of drought: Environmental impacts. Lincoln, USA: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Available at http://www.drought.unl.edu/risk/environment.htm. ; Shaw et al., 2010 x Shaw, R., Nguyen, H., Habiba, U. and Takeuchi, Y. 2010. Drought in Asian Monsoon region. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. . ). Between 1999 and 2005, droughts contributed to the loss of at least 100,000 hectares of salt marshes along Florida’s coastline (Silliman et al., 2005 x Silliman, B., Van de Koppel, J., Bertness, M., Stanton, L. and Mendelssohn, I. 2005. Drought, snails, and large-scale die-off of southern U.S. salt marshes. Science 310 (5755): 1803–1806. . ). In Spain, the 1991–1995 drought indirectly resulted in the draining of wetlands, causing saltwater intrusion of coastal aquifers; and the area affected by forest fires in southern Spain increased by 63 percent compared to the previous decade (Mestre, 2010 x  Mestre, A. 2010. Drought monitoring and drought management in Spain. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).
Public spending	Downstream impacts indicate increased competition and conflict between different sectors of water users and a need for increased government spending on relief and compensation. In Andhra Pradesh, India for example, rice irrigation increasingly relies on pumped groundwater. As energy for pumping is subsidized by the government, this results in even lower groundwater levels, and rice cultivation also drains state funds and contributes to periodic blackouts (Lvovsky et al., 2006 x Lvovsky, K., Mahul, O., Makino, Y., Noble, I., Krovvidi, A., Francis, S. and Priya, S. 2006. Overcoming drought: Adaptation strategies for Andhra Pradesh, India. Washington DC, USA: The World Bank. . ). The cost of food and non-food assistance provided in response to the 1991–1992 drought in ten southern African countries exceeded US$950 million, and during the 2007–2009 drought in Kenya, 70 percent of the population of one region depended upon food aid (Holloway, 1995 x Holloway, A. 1995. Southern Africa: Drought relief, drought rehabilitation. What about drought mitigation? Humanitarian Exchange Magazine. September 1995: 5–7. . ; Galu et al., 2010 x  Galu, G., Kere, J., Funk, C. and Husak, G. 2010. Case study on understanding food security trends and development of decision-support tools and their impact on vulnerable livelihoods in east Africa. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).

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