3.4 Drought risk drivers

3.4.1 Decreasing rainfall, climate variability and climate change

Rainfall has been decreasing in many regions in the past century. In areas with increasing water stress, even less intense drought episodes are now manifesting as agricultural or hydrological droughts. Areas that are most stressed in normal times will be the first to suffer drought impacts when deficiencies in rainfall occur (Table 3.3).

Climate scenarios in India	Maharashtra, India, is home to nearly 100 million people, with most working in the agriculture sector, mostly in small-scale and marginal farming (ECA, 2009 x ECA (Economics of Climate Adaptation). 2009. Shaping climate adaptation: A framework for decision-making. New York, USA: McKinsey & Company. Available at http://www.mckinsey.com/App_Media/Images/Page_Images/Offices/SocialSector/PDF/ECA_Shaping_Climate%20Resilent_Development.pdf. ). Agriculture here depends on rainfall for much of its water supply, so even a small decline in precipitation can threaten the food security of millions of people. An analysis of 22 climate models indicates that droughts that occur once every 25 years may return as often as once every 8 years in the coming decades (ECA, 2009 x ECA (Economics of Climate Adaptation). 2009. Shaping climate adaptation: A framework for decision-making. New York, USA: McKinsey & Company. Available at http://www.mckinsey.com/App_Media/Images/Page_Images/Offices/SocialSector/PDF/ECA_Shaping_Climate%20Resilent_Development.pdf. ).
Small-scale farmers affected by changing climates in sub-Saharan Africa	The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report reports that in South Africa, net crop revenues may fall by 90 percent by 2100, particularly affecting small-scale farmers (Boko et al., 2007 x Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Tabo, R. and Yanda, P. 2007. Africa. In: Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. Van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. . ). Parts of Mali already receive 200 mm less annual rainfall than 50 years ago, and a range of climate scenarios suggests increased drought frequency during the coming decades could reduce agricultural and livestock production by as much as US$300 million per year (ECA, 2009 x ECA (Economics of Climate Adaptation). 2009. Shaping climate adaptation: A framework for decision-making. New York, USA: McKinsey & Company. Available at http://www.mckinsey.com/App_Media/Images/Page_Images/Offices/SocialSector/PDF/ECA_Shaping_Climate%20Resilent_Development.pdf. ).
China’s crop losses due to climate variability and change	Between 2004 and 2007, Chinese farmers lost nearly US$8 billion of crops to drought (McKinsey Climate Change, 2009 x McKinsey Climate Change. 2009. From bread basket to dust bowl? Assessing the economic impact of tackling drought in north and northeast China. Beijing, China: McKinsey & Company. . ). In the drought-prone north and north-east, annual crop losses to drought could be 6–7 percent of the total yield by 2030 due to expected decreases in precipitation during critical months of the growing season. In such a scenario, annual drought losses could be as high as US$9 billion in north-eastern China alone (McKinsey Climate Change, 2009 x McKinsey Climate Change. 2009. From bread basket to dust bowl? Assessing the economic impact of tackling drought in north and northeast China. Beijing, China: McKinsey & Company. . ).

3.4.2 Poverty and rural vulnerability

Case studies from all regions confirm the findings from the 2009 Global Assessment Report, that drought risk is intimately linked to poverty and rural vulnerability (Table 3.4) (UNISDR, 2009). From Brazil and Mexico to India and South Africa, they highlight that poor rural households whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture are very exposed and vulnerable to drought and least able to buffer and absorb its impacts. Rural poverty is thus both a cause and a consequence of drought risk. In many places, as the example of the Navajo Nation highlighted, people may have been forced to occupy marginal drought-exposed land, and may be unable to access irrigation technology or drought-resistant seeds that could reduce their vulnerability. Limited access to affordable credit and insurance further constrains their resilience.

Lack of irrigation and water storage in Kenya and Brazil	In Kenya’s Mwingi district, 70–80 percent of the population depend on rain-fed agriculture and livestock production for both food and income, and 60 percent subsist on US$1 per day or less (Galu et al., 2010 x  Galu, G., Kere, J., Funk, C. and Husak, G. 2010. Case study on understanding food security trends and development of decision-support tools and their impact on vulnerable livelihoods in east Africa. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Therefore, when drought occurs it can wipe out income and investments, leaving communities with limited means to buffer losses. During the 2008–2009 drought, for example, 70 percent of the population depended on food aid, and although this relief successfully averted a food security crisis, it reveals the extreme vulnerability of rural agricultural and agro-pastoral livelihoods (Galu et al., 2010 x  Galu, G., Kere, J., Funk, C. and Husak, G. 2010. Case study on understanding food security trends and development of decision-support tools and their impact on vulnerable livelihoods in east Africa. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). In Ceará, Brazil, agricultural drought risk is concentrated amongst smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend entirely on rain-fed agriculture, and who do not hold water rights or have access to irrigation and water-storage infrastructure. As a result, per capita GDP in such rural communities is only one third of those in urban settlements along the coast, and Human Development Index values of rural districts are less than 0.65, compared to 0.70 for Brazil as a whole (Sávio Martins, 2010 x  Sávio Martins, E. 2010. Assessing drought risk and identifying policy alternatives for drought risk management: Ceará, Brazil. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ; UNDP, 2010 x UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2010. Human development report 2010: The real wealth of nations: Pathways to human development. New York, USA: United Nations Development Programme. Available at http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/. ).
Expansion of intensive cash crop production and urbanization in Mexico	Mexico’s water management and land tenure policies date back to the 1910 revolution and are based on communal ownership of land and water by smallholder farmers, known as ejido, 25 percent of whom live in abject poverty. The expansion of intensive market agriculture and urbanization has led to the forced sale of water rights, pushing the rural poor to farm marginal lands more intensively, increasing their drought risk further still (Fitzhugh and Richter, 2004 x Fitzhugh, T. and Richter, B. 2004. Quenching urban thirst: Growing cities and their impacts on freshwater ecosystems. BioScience 54 (8): 741–754. . ). Today, the ejido cannot compete with large farmers and agribusinesses, and in Sonora their agricultural drought risk is increasing as nearly 75 percent of irrigation water is now allocated to this sector (Neri and Briones, 2010 x  Neri, C. and Briones, F. 2010. Assessing drought risk and identifying policy alternatives for drought risk management. Risks, impacts and social meaning of drought: Characterization of the vulnerability in Sonora, Mexico. Background Paper prepared for the 2010 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).
Limited access to credit in Honduras	In Honduras, 67 percent of the rural population are subsistence farmers, but only 2 percent have access to formal credit, which could facilitate investment in better equipment and provide protection from drought impacts (Brenes Torres, 2010 x  Brenes Torres, A. 2010. Elementos y patrones constitutivos del riesgo de sequía en América Central. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Drought losses in Honduras and other Central American countries cause increased school drop-out rates, rural debt, rural-to-urban migration, forced sale of lands, and increased unemployment (Brenes Torres, 2010 x  Brenes Torres, A. 2010. Elementos y patrones constitutivos del riesgo de sequía en América Central. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).

For example, sub-Saharan Africa’s water storage facilities are severely under-developed, with an average per capita storage capacity of 200 cubic metres per year, compared to 1,277 cubic metres for Thailand and 5,961 for North America (Grey and Sadoff, 2006; Foster and Briceno-Garmendia, 2010). Averages hide significant variations, however, with Ethiopia and South Africa having storage capacities of 38 and 687 cubic metres, respectively. The total capital needs for the development of adequate water infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa for 2006–2015 was estimated to be approximately US$15 billion (Foster and Briceno-Garmendia, 2010).

For vulnerable rural households, even minor drought episodes can lead to yield losses and can have devastating impacts on already precarious and non-diversified livelihoods. Barely subsisting even in good years, many are unable to mobilize the necessary assets to buffer losses, and their welfare declines further still. Such impacts are self-reinforcing. They are most pronounced in poor communities, and each drought erodes livelihoods further, leaving households and communities more vulnerable to future droughts and other hazards (Wilhite and Buchanan-Smith, 2005). At the macro level, institutions may have little capacity to provide drought relief or compensation, or may have little accountability with ethnically and politically discriminated communities (Wilhite and Buchanan-Smith, 2005), with the result that agricultural drought impacts can turn into food security crises (Devereux, 2007).

3.4.3 Increasing water demand due to urbanization, industrialization and the growth of agribusiness

Urban and economic development per se is not a driver of drought risk. However, much development is planned and authorized without taking water availability into account, or without taking adequate measures for water management and conservation (Table 3.5). Case studies highlight that in already water-stressed areas and countries, the growth of intensive agriculture, urban development, tourism and other economic sectors leads to increased and conflicting demands for often declining water resources. This is a key driver of both hydrological and agricultural drought risk, but is seldom taken into account in development planning (Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2005).⁴ 

Accelerated water demand in the United States of America	Phoenix, Arizona, is running dry. Already by the 1940s, demand for water driven by population growth and economic development was outstripping supply (Fitzhugh and Richter, 2004 x Fitzhugh, T. and Richter, B. 2004. Quenching urban thirst: Growing cities and their impacts on freshwater ecosystems. BioScience 54 (8): 741–754. . ). The Salt and Verde Rivers were dammed to increase availability but soon both rivers had run dry except after rains. While continuing to draw excessively from the region’s aquifers, Phoenix began to transfer water from the Colorado River in 1980. By 2025, the city’s population is expected to grow by another 50 percent (Fitzhugh and Richter, 2004 x Fitzhugh, T. and Richter, B. 2004. Quenching urban thirst: Growing cities and their impacts on freshwater ecosystems. BioScience 54 (8): 741–754. . ), meanwhile, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicates that this region will experience even more frequent and severe droughts (IPCC, 2007 x IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. . ).
Impact of economic growth in China	China’s economic growth has coincided with water shortages in the northern part of the country (WWAP, 2009a x WWAP( World Water Assessment Programme). 2009a. United Nations world water development report 3: Water in a changing world. Paris, France: United Nations World Water Assessment Programme. . ). Between 1949 and 2006, annual water demand in the Yellow River Basin increased from 10 to 37.5 billion cubic metres. This was driven by the expansion of irrigated agriculture which grew in area from 8,000 to 75,000 km2 in the 50 years to 2000, and hydropower plants that now produce 40 TWh per year to meet growing demand from China’s industrial sector (WWAP, 2009b x WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme). 2009b. Case study volume: Facing the challenges, from United Nations World Water Development Report 3: Water in a changing world. Paris, France: United Nations World Water Assessment Programme. . ). The impacts of such growth have made the region highly vulnerable to droughts. In the 1990s, springs in Jinan, “the city of springs”, ran dry and from 1995 to 1998 there was no flow at all in the lowest 700 km of the Yellow River for 120 days of the year (WWAP, 2009b x WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme). 2009b. Case study volume: Facing the challenges, from United Nations World Water Development Report 3: Water in a changing world. Paris, France: United Nations World Water Assessment Programme. . ).
The effects of a growing leisure and tourism industry in Spain and the Caribbean	Per capita water use in the tourism industry is often 3 to 10 times greater than local demand (Fernandez and Graham, 1999 x Fernandez, B. and Graham, L. 1999. Sustainable economic development through integrated water resources management. Panama City, Panama: Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC). . ), and overall consumption by the tourism sector is increasing dramatically (Iglesias et al., 2007 x Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Flores, F. and Moneo, M. 2007. Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean. Water Resources Management 21 (5): 755–788. . ; Farrell et al., 2010 x  Farrell, D., Trotman, A. and Cox, C. 2010. Drought early warning and risk reduction: A case study of the drought of 2009–2010. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). As competition for water increases, it is often agriculture that loses out. In Spain, second homes and golf courses, alone, have increased water demand by 30 million cubic metres per year (Iglesias et al., 2007 x Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Flores, F. and Moneo, M. 2007. Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean. Water Resources Management 21 (5): 755–788. . ). Additionally, tourism leads to large seasonal variations in water use that can lead to hydrological droughts in peak seasons, often coinciding with drier, sunnier periods (Farrell et al., 2010 x  Farrell, D., Trotman, A. and Cox, C. 2010. Drought early warning and risk reduction: A case study of the drought of 2009–2010. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). In the Mediterranean, the seasonal tourism industry increases overall annual water demand by at least 5–20 percent in affected communities (Iglesias et al., 2007 x Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Flores, F. and Moneo, M. 2007. Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean. Water Resources Management 21 (5): 755–788. . ; WWAP, 2009a x WWAP( World Water Assessment Programme). 2009a. United Nations world water development report 3: Water in a changing world. Paris, France: United Nations World Water Assessment Programme. . ). In Mallorca, the annual number of tourists almost doubled from 1989 to 2000 to 8 million, outnumbering the local population by more than 10 to 1. This meant that during the drought in the mid-1990s, the Government of Spain was forced to ship freshwater from the mainland at a cost of €42 million (Garcia and Servera, 2003 x Garcia, C. and Servera J. 2003. Impacts of tourism development on water demand and beach degradation on the island of Mallorca (Spain). Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography 85 (3–4): 287–300. . ; Iglesias, 2007 x Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Flores, F. and Moneo, M. 2007. Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean. Water Resources Management 21 (5): 755–788. . ). In the eastern Caribbean, many islands are already water scarce, with less than 1,000 cubic metres of water per capita per year. However, the 2009–2010 agricultural drought was due less to lack of rainfall than to restrictions imposed on agriculture as water was allocated to other sectors (Farrell et al., 2010 x  Farrell, D., Trotman, A. and Cox, C. 2010. Drought early warning and risk reduction: A case study of the drought of 2009–2010. Background paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).

Competition for freshwater already exists and it is expected to increase as water demand continues to grow, alongside population growth and economic development. These two processes determine the relationship between water supply and water demand to a much greater degree than climate change (Vörösmarty et al., 2000). Total global annual water demand has tripled since 1960, and is currently increasing by 64 billion cubic metres every year (WWAP, 2009a). This growth has not happened evenly. Developed countries consume more water per capita than most developing countries (Figure 3.9), and global trade has allowed some countries to externalize their water consumption. For example, Europe is a large importer of cotton, a water-intensive crop grown in many water scarce regions, defined as those with less than 1,700 cubic metres of water per person per year (WWAP, 2009a). By 2025, 1.8 billion people will live in countries or regions with water scarcity, and by 2030 nearly half of the world’s population will live in areas with high water stress (UN-WATER, 2007; OECD, 2008).

Demand for industrial water use tends to increase with relative wealth. It can rise from less than 10 percent of total national demand in low- and middle-income countries to nearly 60 percent in high-income countries (WWAP, 2009a). Economic development, and tourism in particular, increases competition for water resources often in already water-stressed areas such as southern Spain or the eastern Caribbean.

3.4.4 Inappropriate soil and water management

Agricultural droughts have been recorded in parts of Bangladesh where mean annual rainfall is 2,300 mm, in Lao People’s Democratic Republic where rainfall is 3,200 mm, and in Cambodia where an SPI of +2.7 corresponds to an excess of water and potential flooding (Shaw et al., 2010). However, Table 3.6 shows that precipitation and SPI values do not reflect water availability in reservoirs, rivers and canal systems, highlighting once again why meteorological drought is not always an accurate indicator of drought hazard.

Introduction of water-intensive crops in Saudi Arabia	In the 1970s, the Government of Saudi Arabia instituted a policy of self-sufficiency in wheat production and subsidized production accordingly. From 1972 to 1991, land used for agricultural production grew from 0.4 million to 1.6 million hectares (Saudi Arabia, 1992 x Saudi Arabia, Government of. 1990. Fifth development plan. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of Planning. . ), and by the early 1990s it had become the world’s sixth-largest wheat producer. In 1992, domestic wheat production of 4.25 million tonnes easily surpassed national demand of 1.22 million tonnes (Abderrahman, 2001 x Abderrahman, W.A. 2001. Water demand management in Saudi Arabia. Chapter 6. In: Water Management in Islam, N.I. Faruqui, A.K. Biswas and M.J. Bino, eds.Ottawa, Canada: United Nations University Press / International Development Research Centre (IDRC). Available at http://books.google.com/books?id=UugAzosromcC&lpg=PP1&dq=water%20management%20in%20islam&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false. ; Karam, 2008 x Karam, S. 2008. Saudi Arabia scraps wheat growing to save water. Reuters, 8 January 2008. Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL08699206. ). This depended upon irrigation and extraction of ground water that from 1980 to 1992 grew from 1,850 to 29,826 million cubic metres per year (Saudi Arabia, 1990 x Saudi Arabia, Government of. 1992. Agricultural statistical year book. Volume 7.Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of Agriculture and Water. . ; Dabbagh and Abderrahman 1997 x Dabbagh, A. and Abderrahman, W. 1997. Management of groundwater resources under various irrigation water use scenarios in Saudi Arabia. Arabian Journal of Science and Engineering 22: 47–64. . ), threatening the country with unprecedented drought. The wheat self-sufficiency policy became so expensive and drained aquifers so dramatically that it was eventually abandoned. Saudi Arabia now intends to depend completely on imported wheat by 2016 (Karam, 2008 x Karam, S. 2008. Saudi Arabia scraps wheat growing to save water. Reuters, 8 January 2008. Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL08699206. ).
Shifting production patterns and deforestation in Viet Nam	Rainfall in the Ninh Thuan province of Viet Nam has been increasing over time. Droughts have become more common, however, because rainfall is becoming more variable and demand for water is increasing, and is expected to increase, in every sector of the economy (Shaw et al., 2010 x Shaw, R., Nguyen, H., Habiba, U. and Takeuchi, Y. 2010. Drought in Asian Monsoon region. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. . ). Agricultural demand is the largest contributor to water withdrawals, and is predicted to grow by 150 percent between 2015 and 2020, while demand for aquaculture, industry and environment needs will double. Deforestation and shifting production patterns (e.g., more shrimp farming) have further reduced supply and increased demand. In the past 40 years, per capita annual water availability in Ninh Thuan has fallen from 17,000 to 4,600 cubic metres (Tinh, 2006 x Tinh, D.N. Coping with drought in the central highlands - Vietnam, institute of environment and resource. Lyngby, Denmark: Technical University of Denmark. . ), leading to a ‘water war’ between agriculture, aquaculture, industry and tourism.
Overgrazing and rangeland management in Mexico	The management of rangeland is equally challenging for effective drought risk management. Many ranchers overgraze, and in Sonora, Mexico, herd sizes may be double to triple the carrying capacity of the land (Neri and Briones, 2010 x  Neri, C. and Briones, F. 2010. Assessing drought risk and identifying policy alternatives for drought risk management. Risks, impacts and social meaning of drought: Characterization of the vulnerability in Sonora, Mexico. Background Paper prepared for the 2010 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). This problem was observed in the Navajo Nation despite restrictions on herd size, which has as much to do with choice of livestock as the environmental conditions (Redsteer et al., 2010 x  Redsteer, M.H., Kelley, K.B., Francis, H. and Block, D. 2010. Disaster risk assessment case study: Recent drought on the Navajo nation, southwestern United States. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ).

3.4.5 Weak or ineffective risk governance

Case studies highlighted weak or ineffective risk governance capacities to address drought risks, and few countries besides Australia and India have developed national drought risk policies or frameworks (Table 3.7). Progress is nonetheless being made in drought risk management, especially in forecasting, early warning, preparedness, response and the development of compensatory mechanisms such as insurance and temporary employment programmes. Early warning is a crucial component of drought risk management, and seasonal forecasts and climate models inform decisions about what and when to plant. However, insurance and risk transfer mechanisms may not always be available to poor rural households who most need them to offset their risks. Also, compensatory measures like drought relief may actually reward poor resource management and punish planners who employ proactive drought mitigation policies that leave them ineligible for assistance (Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2005).

Low priority given to drought by governments in Mexico	Of the 16 million hectares of agricultural land in Sonora, Mexico, 87 percent are rain-fed and highly vulnerable to agricultural drought and account for 70 percent of agricultural production (Neri, 2004 x Neri, C. 2004. Evaluación del riesgo en el sector agrícola ante la variabilidad climática. Thesis.México DF, Mexico: . ; Neri and Briones, 2010 x  Neri, C. and Briones, F. 2010. Assessing drought risk and identifying policy alternatives for drought risk management. Risks, impacts and social meaning of drought: Characterization of the vulnerability in Sonora, Mexico. Background Paper prepared for the 2010 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Nevertheless, there is no drought early warning system or any systematic recording of drought impacts. A stakeholder survey revealed that this was not due to a lack of meteorological data or an inability to create seasonal drought forecasts, but reflected the low priority given by the authorities to drought risk management and poor rural communities (Neri and Briones, 2010 x  Neri, C. and Briones, F. 2010. Assessing drought risk and identifying policy alternatives for drought risk management. Risks, impacts and social meaning of drought: Characterization of the vulnerability in Sonora, Mexico. Background Paper prepared for the 2010 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). In Sonora, there is no drought risk management policy framework, and issues such as water resources and rangeland management fall through the cracks between the civil protection authorities who focus on emergency response, and other government departments.
Fragmented responsibilities for drought risk management in Viet Nam	In Viet Nam, government institutions address the risks associated with annual floods and tropical cyclones, but they are less well equipped to reduce and manage drought risks. Responsibility for drought risk is centralized within the national government, but the management of drought risk drivers falls between different institutions responsible for managing forests, agriculture, water and land use (Shaw et al., 2010 x Shaw, R., Nguyen, H., Habiba, U. and Takeuchi, Y. 2010. Drought in Asian Monsoon region. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. . ).
Weak local drought risk governance capacities in Bangladesh	North-western Bangladesh receives 1,329 mm of rainfall per year, half the national average, and is prone to frequent droughts which local governments are mostly illequipped to manage. Drought risk relates to household resilience, but also to the institutional capacity of local governments. The local governments of Tanore and Shibganj have very low institutional resilience. They have not incorporated drought risk into disaster management plans, not developed effective drought risk management policies, training or demonstration programmes, and have weak coordination with other government institutions and NGOs (Shaw et al., 2010 x Shaw, R., Nguyen, H., Habiba, U. and Takeuchi, Y. 2010. Drought in Asian Monsoon region. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. . ; Habiba et al., 2011). Even during droughts, local disaster management committees in these sub-districts have not engaged in public awareness programmes or run household level disaster drills.
Conflict and excess water use in Morocco	The lack of effective drought risk management is often aggravated by inadequate institutional and financial capacities, particularly in local government (Shaw et al., 2010 x Shaw, R., Nguyen, H., Habiba, U. and Takeuchi, Y. 2010. Drought in Asian Monsoon region. Background Paper prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. . ). To manage scarce groundwater more efficiently during droughts, Morocco enacted a series of reforms, which included the privatization of water rights during the 1990s. The new policies conflicted with tribal customs and religious views and, due to the government’s inability to ensure compliance, overexploitation of groundwater continued (Doukkali, 2005 x Doukkali, M.R. 2005. Water institutional reforms in Morocco. Water Policy 7: 71–88. . ).

Note