GAR 2015 Main Report

Part I - Chapter 3

Notes

1 The global AAL for earthquake and tropical cyclone wind has changed compared to the figures published in GAR13 due to changes in the methodologies for seismic and tropical cyclone hazard assessments. Details on the improvements to the methodology can be found in Annex 1 and in CIMNE-INGENIAR, 2014.
2 Persons aged 15 to 64 based on data from the United Nations; see http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm.
3 World Bank definition of poverty line: those living on less than US$1.25 per day.
4 Calculations based on data from the EIA: http://www.eia.gov.
5 Based on United States Government census data: https://www. census.gov/hhes/families/data/cps2012.html.
6 Based on data from the World Bank: http://data.worldbank. org/.
7 This is defined as armed criminal violence in situations that are not identified as conflict or armed conflict.
8 For example, models from the Global Earthquake model (http://www.globalquakemodel.org) or Deltares (http://www. deltares.nl/en).
9 The Global Risk Assessment was conducted in a partnership of 20 institutions. The probabilistic risk model for all hazards was developed and run by CIMNE and INGENIAR LTDA on the CAPRA modelling platform. The exposure model at the global scale was developed by UNEP-GRID and CIMNE in collaboration with WAPMERR, EU-JRC, Kokusai Kogyo and Beijing Normal University. The hazard models were developed by CIMNE and INGENIAR LTDA (cyclones and earthquakes, with inputs from GEM for earthquakes), CIMA and UNEP-GRID (floods), NGI and Geoscience Australia (tsunamis and volcanoes), and GVM and Geoscience Australia (volcanoes). Vulnerability was modelled by CIMNE and INGENIAR LTDA for Latin America and the Caribbean, and by Geoscience Australia for the Asia-Pacific region. In other regions, HAZUS vulnerability functions developed by USGS were used. Agricultural drought risk assessments were undertaken by ACSAD and FEWSNET. Peer reviews were conducted by WMO (hydro-meteorological hazard models), UNESCO (geohazard models), and an ad-hoc group of seismic hazard and exposure experts. For more details on partners and their contributions, see Annex 1.
10 http://www.ecapra.org/.
11 Throughout this chapter, capital investment refers to gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) based on data from 2013.
12 Capital stock refers to a country’s building stock, comprising residential and commercial buildings, schools and hospitals, based on the exposure model (see Annex 1 for more details).
13 All regions are according to World Bank country and regional classification; see http://data.worldbank.org/about/countryand-lending-groups.
14 See Annex 1 for full risk results by geographical region.
15 http://data.worldbank.org/.
16 Please see Annex 1 for more details on hazard-specific risk results and graphs depicting key economic and social development metrics.

17 The GAR15 risk model considers only tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricanes on the Saffir Simpson Scale), including strong winds and storm surges. Other tropical circulations, such as tropical depressions or tropical storms, are not considered. These kinds of events usually involve lower wind speeds, and therefore effects such as strong winds and storm surge are usually not present in those cases. Thus, although rare but potentially intense stormsnear the equator can exist—as witnessed during the Category 5 Typhoon Bopha in Mindanao in 2012—tropical cyclones do not typically occur at those latitudes. This is because of the Coriolis Effect and the fact that storms rotate clockwise in the southern hemisphere and anticlockwise in the northern hemisphere without crossing over.
18 http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id =7079.
19 Hurricanes: The Greatest Storms on Earth. http:// earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Hurricanes/ (accessed 10 December 2014).
20 http://www.emdat.be.
21 http://www.ready.gov/tsunamis.
22 http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/jishintsunami/ jishintsunami_low2.pdf.
23 The provisional results presented here give an overview of the risks associated with river flooding. Factors other than the depth of the water also have a considerable influence on loss, which means that there is greater uncertainty compared with other hazards.
24 Most SIDS are located in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean or East Asia and the Pacific.
25 The five historical eruptions responsible for the majority of fatalities are: Tambora, Indonesia in 1815 (60,000 fatalities); Krakatau, Indonesia in 1883 (36,417 fatalities); Pelée, Martinique in 1902 (28,800 fatalities); Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia in 1985 (23,187 fatalities); Unzen, Japan in 1792 (14,524 fatalities).
26 Developed by Aspinall et al. (2011), the Population Exposure Index (PEI) is one of the prominent indices used in assessing volcano risk. it is based on the population within 10, 30, and 100 km of a volcano, which is then weighted according to evidence on historical distributions of fatalities within a given distance from volcanoes. The PEI is divided into seven levels, from sparsely to very densely populated areas. The results of the index show that just 4 per cent of volcanoes account for 60 per cent of the total population exposed.
27 A Volcano Hazard Index (VHI) has also been developed to characterize the hazard level of volcanoes based on their recorded eruption frequency, modal and maximum recorded volcanic explosivity levels, and the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents, lahars and lava flows. Only half of the historically active volcanoes have sufficiently detailed eruptive histories to calculate VHI.
28 For this loss estimate, a simplified methodology emulating volcanic ash fall for multi-scale analysis was used for probabilistic hazard modelling of volcanic ash fall in the Asia-Pacific region (different from the model used in the production of maps in Figure 3.35).
29 It should be noted that these values only represent the losses from structural damage, which are only a fraction of potential economic losses that can be caused by ash fall. This also does not include the losses to the aviation industry from airborne ash.

	88 Part I - Chapter 3 Notes 1 The global AAL for earthquake and tropical cyclone wind has changed compared to the figures published in GAR13 due to changes in the methodologies for seismic and tropical cyclone hazard assessments. Details on the improvements to the methodology can be found in Annex 1 and in CIMNE-INGENIAR, 2014. 2 Persons aged 15 to 64 based on data from the United Nations; see http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm. 3 World Bank definition of poverty line: those living on less than US$1.25 per day. 4 Calculations based on data from the EIA: http://www.eia.gov. 5 Based on United States Government census data: https://www. census.gov/hhes/families/data/cps2012.html. 6 Based on data from the World Bank: http://data.worldbank. org/. 7 This is defined as armed criminal violence in situations that are not identified as conflict or armed conflict. 8 For example, models from the Global Earthquake model (http://www.globalquakemodel.org) or Deltares (http://www. deltares.nl/en). 9 The Global Risk Assessment was conducted in a partnership of 20 institutions. The probabilistic risk model for all hazards was developed and run by CIMNE and INGENIAR LTDA on the CAPRA modelling platform. The exposure model at the global scale was developed by UNEP-GRID and CIMNE in collaboration with WAPMERR, EU-JRC, Kokusai Kogyo and Beijing Normal University. The hazard models were developed by CIMNE and INGENIAR LTDA (cyclones and earthquakes, with inputs from GEM for earthquakes), CIMA and UNEP-GRID (floods), NGI and Geoscience Australia (tsunamis and volcanoes), and GVM and Geoscience Australia (volcanoes). Vulnerability was modelled by CIMNE and INGENIAR LTDA for Latin America and the Caribbean, and by Geoscience Australia for the Asia-Pacific region. In other regions, HAZUS vulnerability functions developed by USGS were used. Agricultural drought risk assessments were undertaken by ACSAD and FEWSNET. Peer reviews were conducted by WMO (hydro-meteorological hazard models), UNESCO (geohazard models), and an ad-hoc group of seismic hazard and exposure experts. For more details on partners and their contributions, see Annex 1. 10 http://www.ecapra.org/. 11 Throughout this chapter, capital investment refers to gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) based on data from 2013. 12 Capital stock refers to a country’s building stock, comprising residential and commercial buildings, schools and hospitals, based on the exposure model (see Annex 1 for more details). 13 All regions are according to World Bank country and regional classification; see http://data.worldbank.org/about/countryand-lending-groups. 14 See Annex 1 for full risk results by geographical region. 15 http://data.worldbank.org/. 16 Please see Annex 1 for more details on hazard-specific risk results and graphs depicting key economic and social development metrics. 17 The GAR15 risk model considers only tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricanes on the Saffir Simpson Scale), including strong winds and storm surges. Other tropical circulations, such as tropical depressions or tropical storms, are not considered. These kinds of events usually involve lower wind speeds, and therefore effects such as strong winds and storm surge are usually not present in those cases. Thus, although rare but potentially intense stormsnear the equator can exist—as witnessed during the Category 5 Typhoon Bopha in Mindanao in 2012—tropical cyclones do not typically occur at those latitudes. This is because of the Coriolis Effect and the fact that storms rotate clockwise in the southern hemisphere and anticlockwise in the northern hemisphere without crossing over. 18 http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id =7079. 19 Hurricanes: The Greatest Storms on Earth. http:// earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Hurricanes/ (accessed 10 December 2014). 20 http://www.emdat.be. 21 http://www.ready.gov/tsunamis. 22 http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/jishintsunami/ jishintsunami_low2.pdf. 23 The provisional results presented here give an overview of the risks associated with river flooding. Factors other than the depth of the water also have a considerable influence on loss, which means that there is greater uncertainty compared with other hazards. 24 Most SIDS are located in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean or East Asia and the Pacific. 25 The five historical eruptions responsible for the majority of fatalities are: Tambora, Indonesia in 1815 (60,000 fatalities); Krakatau, Indonesia in 1883 (36,417 fatalities); Pelée, Martinique in 1902 (28,800 fatalities); Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia in 1985 (23,187 fatalities); Unzen, Japan in 1792 (14,524 fatalities). 26 Developed by Aspinall et al. (2011), the Population Exposure Index (PEI) is one of the prominent indices used in assessing volcano risk. it is based on the population within 10, 30, and 100 km of a volcano, which is then weighted according to evidence on historical distributions of fatalities within a given distance from volcanoes. The PEI is divided into seven levels, from sparsely to very densely populated areas. The results of the index show that just 4 per cent of volcanoes account for 60 per cent of the total population exposed. 27 A Volcano Hazard Index (VHI) has also been developed to characterize the hazard level of volcanoes based on their recorded eruption frequency, modal and maximum recorded volcanic explosivity levels, and the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents, lahars and lava flows. Only half of the historically active volcanoes have sufficiently detailed eruptive histories to calculate VHI. 28 For this loss estimate, a simplified methodology emulating volcanic ash fall for multi-scale analysis was used for probabilistic hazard modelling of volcanic ash fall in the Asia-Pacific region (different from the model used in the production of maps in Figure 3.35). 29 It should be noted that these values only represent the losses from structural damage, which are only a fraction of potential economic losses that can be caused by ash fall. This also does not include the losses to the aviation industry from airborne ash.	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