GAR 2015 Main Report

258

Chapter 13

is empowering precisely because most extensive risks are “manageable” and can be addressed through relevant and effective public policies and private action.

Awareness of extensive risk does not in itself lead to transformation. Citizens, households, small businesses and local governments often accept and retain high levels of disaster risk because of highly constrained access to the assets and resources required to reduce those risks. However, a message that centres on aspects of prosperity, choice and quality of life rather than on notions of avoided deaths, vulnerability reduction and cost savings may be able to link substantive individual desires and social needs to the management of risk, even in contexts where development choices are highly constrained.

Risk knowledge and changing values

This perspective also has implications for current efforts to boost public awareness, education and risk information, which tend to reflect and reinforce the orthodox conception of disasters as external threats to development. Rather than revealing opportunities or empowering actions to change development practices, these efforts actually dissimulate the drivers that generate and accumulate risk in the first place. Shifting the emphasis from awareness of disasters as external events towards the process of risk generation and accumulation in development is therefore critical.

The importance of incorporating this approach into formal and informal education and into public awareness campaigns with a particular focus on children and young people as well as taking advantage of social media and new technologies for visualization cannot be overstated. As awareness gradually shifts from disaster losses and impacts to the underlying drivers of risk, a vision of a different way of practising development could gradually emerge, as could effective ways and means of addressing the risk drivers.

13.7 Assessing the costs and

benefits of managing disaster risks

Understanding the costs and benefits of managing disasters will become a key tool for future success. This means understanding and measuring the trade-offs implicit in decisions; their benefits in terms of reduced poverty and inequality, environmental sustainability, economic development and social progress; and who retains the risks, who bears the costs and who reaps the benefits.

Encoding disaster risk metrics into public and private investment

Disaster risk management always weighs risk against opportunity and future threats against current needs. A second way in which the management of disaster risks can be enhanced is by ensuring that the associated costs and benefits are fully encoded into public and private investment at all levels, into the financial system and into the design of risk-sharing and social protection mechanisms.

All development decisions, whether they are related to capital investment, social expenditure or environmental protection, have the potential to either reduce or increase risks. Risk metrics are critical to inform such decisions and to identify the costs, benefits and trade-offs implicit in each decision.

If demand were led by governments, business-

es and a financial sector concerned with sustainability and competitiveness, risk metrics could then cease to be an exotic commodity generated inside a self-contained risk assessment community. These metrics could become integrated as a normal part of government, business planning and decision-making processes.

Accessible and transparent probabilistic risk estimates are critical for assessing the costs and

	258 Chapter 13 is empowering precisely because most extensive risks are “manageable” and can be addressed through relevant and effective public policies and private action. Awareness of extensive risk does not in itself lead to transformation. Citizens, households, small businesses and local governments often accept and retain high levels of disaster risk because of highly constrained access to the assets and resources required to reduce those risks. However, a message that centres on aspects of prosperity, choice and quality of life rather than on notions of avoided deaths, vulnerability reduction and cost savings may be able to link substantive individual desires and social needs to the management of risk, even in contexts where development choices are highly constrained. Risk knowledge and changing values This perspective also has implications for current efforts to boost public awareness, education and risk information, which tend to reflect and reinforce the orthodox conception of disasters as external threats to development. Rather than revealing opportunities or empowering actions to change development practices, these efforts actually dissimulate the drivers that generate and accumulate risk in the first place. Shifting the emphasis from awareness of disasters as external events towards the process of risk generation and accumulation in development is therefore critical. The importance of incorporating this approach into formal and informal education and into public awareness campaigns with a particular focus on children and young people as well as taking advantage of social media and new technologies for visualization cannot be overstated. As awareness gradually shifts from disaster losses and impacts to the underlying drivers of risk, a vision of a different way of practising development could gradually emerge, as could effective ways and means of addressing the risk drivers. 13.7 Assessing the costs and benefits of managing disaster risks Understanding the costs and benefits of managing disasters will become a key tool for future success. This means understanding and measuring the trade-offs implicit in decisions; their benefits in terms of reduced poverty and inequality, environmental sustainability, economic development and social progress; and who retains the risks, who bears the costs and who reaps the benefits. Encoding disaster risk metrics into public and private investment Disaster risk management always weighs risk against opportunity and future threats against current needs. A second way in which the management of disaster risks can be enhanced is by ensuring that the associated costs and benefits are fully encoded into public and private investment at all levels, into the financial system and into the design of risk-sharing and social protection mechanisms. All development decisions, whether they are related to capital investment, social expenditure or environmental protection, have the potential to either reduce or increase risks. Risk metrics are critical to inform such decisions and to identify the costs, benefits and trade-offs implicit in each decision. If demand were led by governments, business- es and a financial sector concerned with sustainability and competitiveness, risk metrics could then cease to be an exotic commodity generated inside a self-contained risk assessment community. These metrics could become integrated as a normal part of government, business planning and decision-making processes. Accessible and transparent probabilistic risk estimates are critical for assessing the costs and	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 248 Page 249 Page 250 Page 251 Page 252 Page 253 Page 254 Page 255 Page 256 Page 257 Page 258 Page 259 ->Page 260 Page 261 Page 262 Page 263 Page 264 Page 265 Page 266 Page 267 Page 268 Page 269 Page 270 Page 271 Page 272 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310