Large earthquake prediction methods

At the present time rather diverse and interesting papers are published on the basis of ground-based and satellite data of earth VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic (EM) emissions observed during earthquake preparation period. To prove the prediction capabilities of earth electromagnetic emissions authors have used avalanche-like unstable model of fault formation and an analogous model of electromagnetic contour, synthesis of which, is rather harmonious. According to the opinion of the authors EM emissions observed during earthquake preparation period are more universal and reliable than other earthquake indicators. In the presented paper, the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered on the base of the European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation (INFREP) data existent before Crete earthquake with M=5.6 (25/05/2016, 08:36:13 UTC) earthquake.

Τhe following conclusions are made:

1. About 50 days prior to the earthquake, it is possible to separate a continuous active frequency channel;
2. By the active channel frequency, about 50 days before the earthquake, it is possible to determine the length of “cracked strip” on which the process of cracks origination is going on actively and ultimately the main fault forms;
3. By the length of the “cracked strip”, it is possible to determine magnitude of incoming earthquake with certain accuracy about 50 days prior to the earthquake;
4. After the active frequency channel detection, it is already possible to determine the future earthquake epicenter with certain accuracy;
5. In order to short-term prediction of a large earthquake, it is recommended to begin the frequency data monitoring from the starting moment of the avalanche-unstable process of fault formation and keep an eye on the process dynamics;
6. In the case of monitoring of electromagnetic emissions existent before earthquake, it is possible, step-by-step, to make about 50, 20 as well as 2-days short-term prediction of incoming earthquake;
7. Based on the proposed method, it is easy to separate the foreshock and aftershock series from the main shock;
8. EM emissions turned out to be the unique precursor, which is capable of large earthquake short-term prediction.