GAR 2015 Main Report

Figure 3.14 shows the 15 countries (excluding SIDS) where the highest proportion of capital stock could be lost with a probability of 10 per cent over a fifty-year period (500-year PML). As can be seen, these potential losses are important, representing between 2 and 12 per cent of the total capital stock for these countries.

These losses are equivalent to 800 per cent of annual capital investment in Trinidad and Tobago, 100 per cent of annual capital investment in Peru and 90 per cent in Japan. To avoid systemic risk, it is important to factor contingent liabilities into international loans and other financial instruments.

Tropical cyclones

Global average annual loss from recurrent cyclone winds and storm surge is estimated at US$80 billion, which is equivalent to 1.4 times the total public health expenditure in Africa or 85 per cent of public education expenditure in Australia and New Zealand combined.

The physical intensity of tropical cyclones is determined by their wind speeds, which affect both coastal and inland areas. Historically, the highest concentration of cyclonic wind has been in the Western Pacific (Figure 3.15). The weakest storms take place near the equator, in their first stages of development; over land, as they run out of energy; and in the mid-latitudes due to the cooler temperature of the water.17 Given the concentration of economic assets and population along the coasts in many countries, risk is heavily influenced by exposure. However, in low and middle-income countries the vulnerability of building stock is an important risk factor which increases in weight in the case of low-intensity cyclones (UNISDR, 2011a

UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

Strong winds and low air pressure in the eye of the storm may also cause storm surges up to 10 metres high. In contrast to wind, storm surge can only contribute to significant damage along the coast, depending on the slope of the seabed in the area where the cyclone makes landfall

(Source: NASA.18)

Figure 3.15 Worldwide historical tropical cyclone tracks

	67 Figure 3.14 shows the 15 countries (excluding SIDS) where the highest proportion of capital stock could be lost with a probability of 10 per cent over a fifty-year period (500-year PML). As can be seen, these potential losses are important, representing between 2 and 12 per cent of the total capital stock for these countries. These losses are equivalent to 800 per cent of annual capital investment in Trinidad and Tobago, 100 per cent of annual capital investment in Peru and 90 per cent in Japan. To avoid systemic risk, it is important to factor contingent liabilities into international loans and other financial instruments. Tropical cyclones Global average annual loss from recurrent cyclone winds and storm surge is estimated at US$80 billion, which is equivalent to 1.4 times the total public health expenditure in Africa or 85 per cent of public education expenditure in Australia and New Zealand combined. The physical intensity of tropical cyclones is determined by their wind speeds, which affect both coastal and inland areas. Historically, the highest concentration of cyclonic wind has been in the Western Pacific (Figure 3.15). The weakest storms take place near the equator, in their first stages of development; over land, as they run out of energy; and in the mid-latitudes due to the cooler temperature of the water.17 Given the concentration of economic assets and population along the coasts in many countries, risk is heavily influenced by exposure. However, in low and middle-income countries the vulnerability of building stock is an important risk factor which increases in weight in the case of low-intensity cyclones (UNISDR, 2011a x UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ). Strong winds and low air pressure in the eye of the storm may also cause storm surges up to 10 metres high. In contrast to wind, storm surge can only contribute to significant damage along the coast, depending on the slope of the seabed in the area where the cyclone makes landfall (Source: NASA.18) Figure 3.15 Worldwide historical tropical cyclone tracks	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 57 Page 58 Page 59 Page 60 Page 61 Page 62 Page 63 Page 64 Page 65 Page 66 Page 67 Page 68 ->Page 69 Page 70 Page 71 Page 72 Page 73 Page 74 Page 75 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310