GAR 2015 Main Report

244

Part III - Chapter 12

lost between 1930 and 2003 (Butchart et al., 2010

Butchart, S.H.M. et al. 2010,Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines, Science, Vol. 328, No. 5982, pp. 1164-1168. doi: 10.1126/science.1187512.. .

). Globally, a total of 90 per cent of reef locations are projected to experience severe bleaching by 2050 (Figure 12.14).

The destruction of planetary systems promises the ultimate kata-strophe. Under the most stark projections, the planet will have lost all its glaciers and have sterile oceans within just a few hundred years. There is no doubt that there will always be winners and losers in the shifting equations of overwhelmed planetary systems. But current assumptions regarding social and economic development and urbanization will hold little water. It is still unclear whether or not the plethora of local initiatives promoting green infrastructure, renewable energy, biodiversity restoration and other areas can gain traction quickly enough to change course. Even if it is too little, too late, these initiatives still provide hope. Ultimately, the key question is how to protect a planet that provides the basis for human and social wellbeing without simply protecting a paradigm that is currently destroying it.

Figure 12.14 Projections of coral reef decline

(Source: van Hooidonk et al., 2013.)

Notes

1 http://aosis.org/reports-fiji-latest-country-to-relocateclimate-refugees (accessed 11 January 2015).
2 World Bank data: http://data.worldbank.org.
3 There is some debate as to the definition of the exact values that constitute these planetary boundaries. Moreover, researchers are in agreement that not all boundaries apply globally, and instead it is local conditions that will define when critical thresholds have been reached. Moreover, there is some difficulty in interpreting the data for policymaking, and assigning arbitrary acceptable limits may create new risks (http://www.nature.com/nature/ journal/v461/n7263/full/461447b.html). Despite these caveats, the debate on planetary boundaries has been a useful dooropener to a more profound debate on unsustainable current consumption patterns. For more information on the discussion of planetary boundaries, see http://www.nature.com/news/ specials/planetaryboundaries/index.html.
4 http://www.unccd.int/en/about-the-convention/Pages/Aboutthe-Convention.aspx (accessed 11 January 2015).
5 http://www.ramsar.org/cda/en/ramsar-documents-textsconvention-on/main/ramsar/1-31-38%5E20671_4000_0__
6 http://www.cbd.int/sp.
7 350 ppm has been identified as the limit if global warming is not to exceed 2°C, where ppm = parts per million, i.e. the ratio of the number of gas molecules to the total number of molecules of dry air.
8 http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/noaa-mauna-loaco2-data.html.
9 The largest emitters since 1990 are (in order of magnitude) China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, India and Japan (IEA, 2013

IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion, Highlights. IEA Statistics. Paris.. .

	244 Part III - Chapter 12 lost between 1930 and 2003 (Butchart et al., 2010 x Butchart, S.H.M. et al. 2010,Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines, Science, Vol. 328, No. 5982, pp. 1164-1168. doi: 10.1126/science.1187512.. . ). Globally, a total of 90 per cent of reef locations are projected to experience severe bleaching by 2050 (Figure 12.14). The destruction of planetary systems promises the ultimate kata-strophe. Under the most stark projections, the planet will have lost all its glaciers and have sterile oceans within just a few hundred years. There is no doubt that there will always be winners and losers in the shifting equations of overwhelmed planetary systems. But current assumptions regarding social and economic development and urbanization will hold little water. It is still unclear whether or not the plethora of local initiatives promoting green infrastructure, renewable energy, biodiversity restoration and other areas can gain traction quickly enough to change course. Even if it is too little, too late, these initiatives still provide hope. Ultimately, the key question is how to protect a planet that provides the basis for human and social wellbeing without simply protecting a paradigm that is currently destroying it. Figure 12.14 Projections of coral reef decline (Source: van Hooidonk et al., 2013.) Notes 1 http://aosis.org/reports-fiji-latest-country-to-relocateclimate-refugees (accessed 11 January 2015). 2 World Bank data: http://data.worldbank.org. 3 There is some debate as to the definition of the exact values that constitute these planetary boundaries. Moreover, researchers are in agreement that not all boundaries apply globally, and instead it is local conditions that will define when critical thresholds have been reached. Moreover, there is some difficulty in interpreting the data for policymaking, and assigning arbitrary acceptable limits may create new risks (http://www.nature.com/nature/ journal/v461/n7263/full/461447b.html). Despite these caveats, the debate on planetary boundaries has been a useful dooropener to a more profound debate on unsustainable current consumption patterns. For more information on the discussion of planetary boundaries, see http://www.nature.com/news/ specials/planetaryboundaries/index.html. 4 http://www.unccd.int/en/about-the-convention/Pages/Aboutthe-Convention.aspx (accessed 11 January 2015). 5 http://www.ramsar.org/cda/en/ramsar-documents-textsconvention-on/main/ramsar/1-31-38%5E20671_4000_0__ 6 http://www.cbd.int/sp. 7 350 ppm has been identified as the limit if global warming is not to exceed 2°C, where ppm = parts per million, i.e. the ratio of the number of gas molecules to the total number of molecules of dry air. 8 http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/noaa-mauna-loaco2-data.html. 9 The largest emitters since 1990 are (in order of magnitude) China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, India and Japan (IEA, 2013 x IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion, Highlights. IEA Statistics. Paris.. . ).	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 234 Page 235 Page 236 Page 237 Page 238 Page 239 Page 240 Page 241 Page 242 Page 243 Page 244 Page 245 ->Page 246 Page 247 Page 248 Page 249 Page 250 Page 251 Page 252 Page 253 Page 254 Page 255 Page 256 Page 257 Page 258 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310