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Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Making development sustainable: The future of disaster risk management |
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consumption, which is still largely dependent on fossil fuels and manifests as increased greenhouse gas emissions. While greenhouse gas emissions by Annex I 4 countries to the Kyoto Protocol decreased by 9.3 percent between 1990 and 2011,5 global emission levels rose over the same time period and well into 2013 (WMO, 2014b
WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2014b,WMO Greenhouse Bulletin, The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2013. No. 10, 9 September 2014.. . IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013,Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Full Report. Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley, eds. Camb. . UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2014b,Human Development Report, Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York.. . Overconsumption
Economic growth also relies on the increasing consumption of environmental resources, including freshwater, forest and marine resources. Of the 140 countries for which data is available, 59 per cent show an ecological footprint that is above global biocapacity, and 49 out of 172 countries withdraw more fresh water than the global threshold allows (UNDP, 2014b
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2014b,Human Development Report, Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York.. . Changing demographies
Demographic change, including shifts due to migration and displacement, also influences
disaster risk patterns and trends. By 2050, the world’s population will have increased to 9.2 billion (Lutz et al., 2014
Lutz, W., W.P. Butz and Samir K.C., eds. 2014,World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press.. . UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2013,World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. United Nations, New York.. . Lutz, W., W.P. Butz and Samir K.C., eds. 2014,World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press.. . The drive for competitiveness
Within the current development paradigm, both businesses and countries continuously strive to remain competitive. By reducing labour costs in the case of businesses or spending on social welfare and protection in the case of governments, the drive to remain competitive and to attract investment may increase the vulnerability and reduce the resilience of large sectors of the labour force. Conversely, however, the drive to increase energy and resource efficiency in order to reduce costs spurs investment in technologies that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and relieve ecosystems.
Non-linearity and uncertainty
These global drivers of risk are closely interrelated and concatenated, and they are increasingly shaping local realities like the situation in Mumbai. The perception of increasing complexity, interconnectivity and dependency of local realities on global processes erodes the capacity of local stakeholders to manage their risks and increases uncertainty and unease. Given the multiple feedback loops between these different drivers and their non-linearity, even slight changes in the evolution of any one driver can generate unexpected and radical changes in another. As uncertainty and unease replace certainty and
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